MatterOfStats 2015 : Team Dashboard for Round 22
/As the Home-and-Away portion of the season nears its end, team winning rates are becoming generally more aligned with what their Scoring statistics suggest they should be, according to the MatterOfStats Win Production Function (WPF).
Ten teams have won no more than half a game more or less than the WPF would predict given their Scoring statistics, and another three have won no more than a single game more or less that would be predicted. That leaves just five teams to investigate:
- Collingwood, who've won 1.8 games fewer than expected
- Hawthorn, who've won 3.1 games fewer than expected
- West Coast, who've won 1.3 games fewer than expected
- Fremantle, who've won 2.3 games more than expected
- Geelong, who've won 1.1 games more than expected
Concentrating just on these five teams, relative to their ladder positions:
- Collingwood are ranked higher on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Generation, and on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
- Hawthorn are ranked higher on Own Scoring Shot Generation, and on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
- West Coast are ranked higher on the difference between Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Generation
- Fremantle are ranked lower on Own Scoring Shot Generation, and on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (but higher on Opponent Scoring Shot Generation)
- Geelong are ranked lower on the difference between Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Generation (but higher on Opponent Scoring Shot Generation considered alone, and higher on both Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)
As hinted at in the comments above for West Coast and Geelong, differences in Own versus Opponent Scoring Shot Generation have proven better indicators of ladder position this season so far than have differences in Own versus Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion rates, the rank correlation between Generation differences and ladder position currently standing at +0.93, and that between Conversion differences and ladder position at +0.81.
