MatterOfStats 2015 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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This being the final Team Dashboard for the season there'll be extended analysis.

Firstly, in an historical context:

  • Fremantle's final percentage of 118.7 is the fourth lowest ever for a Minor Premier, behind only 1938 Carlton (116.1), 1998 North Melbourne (117.4), and 1936 South Melbourne (118.5)
  • Hawthorn's final percentage of 158.4 is the second highest ever for a team finishing 3rd, behind only 1901 Essendon (167.3), the Dons playing only a 14 game home-and-away season.
  • West Coast's final percentage of 148.2 is the eighth highest ever for a team finishing 2nd, and the highest since 2011 Geelong (157.4)

Relative to the final competition ladder ordering:

  • Ranking on Scoring Shots Created is correlated +0.77 (2014 figure +0.90). This year, the correlation has been dragged down significantly by Fremantle's 12th-place ranking on this measure
  • Ranking on Scoring Shots Conceded is correlated +0.95 (2014 figure +0.78)
  • Ranking on the Difference Between Scoring Shots Created and Conceded is correlated +0.92 (2014 figure +0.90)
  • Ranking on Own Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.70 (2014 figure +0.37)
  • Ranking on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.65 (2014 figure +0.42)
  • Ranking on the Difference Between Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.85 (2014 figure +0.63)
  • Ranking on Q1 Performances is correlated +0.64 (2014 figure +0.89)
  • Ranking on Q2 Performances is correlated +0.79 (2014 figure +0.68)
  • Ranking on Q3 Performances is correlated +0.73 (2014 figure +0.57)
  • Ranking on Q4 Performances is correlated +0.83 (2014 figure +0.80)

The table below provides every team's ranking on key Dashboard metrics and is colour-coded to reflect those rankings most different from a team's ladder position. Rankings shaded red are for metric where this ranking is four places or more lower than the team's ladder position, while those shaded green where this ranking is four places or more higher than the team's ladder position.

The two teams that stand out most in the table, for opposite reasons, are Fremantle and Collingwood, Fremantle because of the large number of metrics for which it is ranked 5th or lower, and Collingwood because of the large number of metrics for which is is ranked 8th or higher.

Other interesting observations are:

  • West Coast's poor Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rates
  • Sydney's and Richmond's poor Own Scoring Shot Conversion Rates
  • The Western Bulldogs' and Adelaide's poor Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rates
  • Hawthorn's and Adelaide's slow starts
  • Richmond's poor 1st and 3rd Quarters
  • The Western Bulldogs' poor 2nd and 4th Quarters
  • Sydney's poor 3rd Quarters
  • The Roos' poor 1st and 2nd Quarters

Finally, to the MoS Win Production Function (WPF), which would have it that, based on each team's scoring metrics, the teams should have finished as follows (the actual competition ladder finish is shown in brackets):

  1. Hawthorn (3rd)
  2. West Coast (2nd)
  3. Sydney (4th)
  4. Richmond (5th)
  5. Fremantle (1st)
  6. Adelaide (7th)
  7. Western Bulldogs (6th)
  8. Kangaroos (8th)
  9. Port Adelaide (9th)
  10. Collingwood (12th)
  11. Geelong (10th)
  12. GWS (11th)
  13. St Kilda (14th)
  14. Melbourne (13th)
  15. Essendon (15th)
  16. Gold Coast (16th)
  17. Brisbane Lions (17th)
  18. Carlton (18th)

We have then, according to the WPF, the right set of Finalists, just in the "wrong" order, Fremantle the notable outlier for all the reasons already given.

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