The Predictability of 2013

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Friend of MAFL, Michael, e-mailed me earlier to ask about my claim that 2013 was on track to be the most predictable MAFL season ever, pointing out, quite correctly, that bookmaker favourites have been winning at about the same rate - perhaps even at a slightly higher rate - as they had been at the same time last year.
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Predicting the Final SuperMargin Bucket In-Running

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On Friday night, while watching the progress of the Saints v Freo game knowing that Investors has a SuperMargin wager on the Saints to win by 20-29, I was wondering how to react to the changes in the scoreline as the game progressed. Should I want the Saints to lead early? By a little? By a lot? By about 5 points at Quarter Time and 10 points at Half Time?
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