When Do AFL Teams Score?

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Soccer goals, analysis suggests, are scored at different rates throughout the course of matches as teams tire and as, sometimes, one team is forced to press for a goal or chooses to concentrate on defending. Armed with the data provided by Paul from afltables.com, which includes every scoring and end-of-quarter event from every game played between the start of season 2008 and the end of the home-and-away season of 2014, we can investigate whether or not the same is true of AFL scoring.

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A Little Behind in the Scoring

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We've not had a proposition bet for a while, so here's a new one for you. We're going to pick a large number of games at random and, based on the half-time score in each, I'll pledge to bet on the team that's scored the greater number of behinds whether they be the raging favourite or the deserving underdog. It both teams have scored the same number of behinds at the main break or if the game ends in a draw, the bet is a push and neither of us need reach into our pockets. Otherwise, I collect if the team that had scored the greater number of behinds at the half goes on win, and you win if the team that had scored the lesser number of behinds at the half goes on win. Simple.
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