Predicting Ultimate Men's AFL Career Length : Improving the Model

In a recent blog post I chronicled, in detail, the creation of a series of models designed to estimate the remaining career length of men’s AFL players and their likelihood of achieving game milestones in the future as at their completion of 1, 10, 25, 50, or 100 games.

Since then I have been investigating the inclusion of a number of additional variables:

  • Brownlow votes up to and including the previous season

  • Coaches votes up to and including the previous game

  • Coach changes

  • Height

  • Draft Position and Source

  • Team overall and recent win rate

  • Selection streaks and gaps

As the table below indicates, only the last three of those variable types provided sufficient additonal predictive power to be included in one or more models.

An updated app, which includes these improvements, can be accessed using this link: AFL Career Length Scenario Explorer v5