When Finalists Meet

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If the teams in the finals are the best teams in the competition (and the MARS ratings say otherwise, but nonetheless) then it seems to make sense to focus on the games in which they've faced off in assessing each team's relative chances. The tables below have been constructed including just those games.

The first table provides the aggregate record of each team:

I'll come back and analyse this some more in a moment, but let me note a couple of interesting things here in passing:

  • Only 3 teams have a Percentage better than 100, and the third of them - the Dogs - only barely qualifies
  • The top 3 teams - on the ladder I've constructed here and on the competition ladder proper - met other teams in the final 8 on the fewest occasions - just 10 times each.

The second table provides summary information on the team matchups:

Now, looking at both tables together, let's consider the records of each team.

St Kilda

  • Have by far the best combined record against the other finalists, losing just 1 of 10 ten games, to the Dons in R20
  • Rank 1st on Points For and on Points Against
  • Have a Percentage almost 25 points better than any other team
  • Faced only 1 finalist in the last 5 rounds of the season

Geelong

  • Have the 2nd best combined record but it is only 6 and 4.
  • Faced 5 finalists in the second half of the season and lost 4 of them
  • Rank 2nd on Points For and 3rd on Points Against
  • Faced 3 finalists in the last 5 rounds of the season, winning 1 and losing 2
  • Have a 2 and 2 record against teams in the top 4

Western Bulldogs

  • Have a 5 and 5 record and, roughly, a Percentage of 100
  • Rank 3rd on Points For and 5th on Points Against
  • Faced only 4 finalists in the 1st half of the season, winning 1 and losing 3
  • Faced 6 finalists in the 2nd half of the season, winning 4 and losing 2
  • Faced finalists in all of the last 3 rounds and defeated them all
  • Have an 0 and 2 record against St Kilda
  • Have a 2 and 4 record against teams in the top 4

Collingwood

  • Have a 6 and 6 record and a Percentage just under 100
  • Are the only team to face 4 of the other finalists twice each
  • Rank 8th on Points For but 2nd on Points Against
  • Went 1 and 5 in the 1st half of the season, and 5 and 1 in the 2nd half
  • Faced 4 finalists in the last 6 rounds of the season, winning the first 3 - in a row, as it happpens - but losing the fourth.
  • Have a 1 and 3 record against teams in the top 4

Carlton

  • Have a 5 and 6 record and a Percentage around 90
  • Rank 4th on Points For but 8th on Points Against
  • Went 4 and 2 in the 1st half of the season, and 1 and 4 in the 2nd half
  • Faced only 3 finalists in the last 9 rounds of the season, winning only 1 of those contests
  • Have 0 and 2 records against Essendon and Adelaide
  • Have a 3 and 2 record against teams in the top 4

Essendon

  • Have a 4.5 and 6.5 record and a Percentage around 90
  • Rank 7th on Points For and on Points Against
  • Went 2 and 4 in the 1st half of the season, and 2.5 and 2.5 in the 2nd half
  • Faced only 2 finalists in the last 6 rounds of the season, winning 1 and drawing the other
  • Have a 2 and 0 record against Carlton
  • Have a 2 and 4 record against teams in the top 4

Adelaide

  • Have a 4 and 7 record and a Percentage around 90
  • Rank 5th on Points For and 6th on Points Against
  • Went 3 and 4 in the 1st half of the season, and 1 and 3 in the 2nd half
  • Have a 2 and 0 record against Carlton
  • Have a 0 and 2 record against St Kilda and against Geelong
  • Have a 1 and 6 record against teams in the top 4

Brisbane Lions

  • Have a 3.5 and 7.5 record and a Percentage around 90
  • Rank 8th on Points For but 4th on Points Against
  • Went 2 and 5 in the 1st half of the season, and 1.5 and 2.5 in the 2nd half
  • Have a 0 and 2 record against Collingwood and against Carlton
  • Have a 1 and 5 record against teams in the top 4