2026 : Simulating the Finals After Round 27 (Week 3 of the Finals)
/The credibility of the MoSHBODS finals forecasts comes down to whether or not you agree with its rating of the Swans and, as a consequence, with its assessment that the Swans estimated probability of winning the Preliminary Final against the Dockers is 66%.
PROBABILITY ESTIMATES FOR THE REMAINING FINALS
The team-versus-team probabilities for the Preliminary Finals and the possible Grand Finals are encapsulated in the table at right.
It shows, for example, that Hawthorn are 49.8% underdogs this week against the Brisbane Lions and that, as stated earlier, Sydney are 66% favourites against Fremantle.
It also shows that a Grand Final between:
Hawthorn and Sydney would have the Hawks as slight favourites (51%)
Hawthorn and Fremantle would have the Hawks as slightly bigger favourites (53%)
Brisbane Lions and Sydney would have the Swans as slight favourites (53%)
Brisbane Lions and Fremantle would have the Dockers as slight favourites (51.5%)
GRAND FINAL PROBABILITIES
Putting all the possibilities together produces the by team Flag probabilities in the table at right.
Fair prices for the teams would therefore be about:
Sydney: $3
Hawthorn: $4
Brisbane Lions: $4.25
Fremantle: $6.25
