2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 19

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; about 50-60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: about 1-2% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 10 teams with about or better than a 3-in-5 chance of finishing Top 10

  • 5 teams with about or better than a 1-in-2 chance of finishing Top 4

There were some very large percentage point changes in some team’s chances this week:

Top 4

  • Adelaide +17% points

Top 10

  • GWS -25% points, Collingwood +19% points, and Western Bulldogs +14% points

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 12 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Fremantle ($2.80)

  • Hawthorn ($6.70)

  • Brisbane Lions ($7.50)

  • Sydney ($8.10)

  • Adelaide ($11)

  • Geelong ($15)

  • Melbourne ($28)

  • Collingwood ($80)

  • St Kilda ($150)

  • Western Bulldogs ($155)

  • GWS ($300)

  • Carlton ($1,100)

  • Port Adelaide ($8,000)

  • Gold Coast ($8,250)

  • North Melbourne ($22,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 547,166 different Top 18s

  • 81,886 different Top 10s (and 94 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 507 different Top 4s (and 60 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are a mix of higher and lower compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-100 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 1% from 7%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 35% from 30%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 9-in-25 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (down to 36% from 37%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 30% from 34%)