2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 15

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 99% chances of being finalists; about 40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Collingwood, Gold Coast, Carlton, and St Kilda: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 1% or less chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS: about 30% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. Port Adelaide: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  12. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 13 teams with about or better than a 3-in-10 chances of finishing Top 10

  • 5 teams with about or better than a 2-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16.5 wins (although 16 wins is close)

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Fremantle ($3.50)

  • Sydney ($5.10)

  • Hawthorn ($6)

  • Geelong ($7)

  • Adelaide ($12.50)

  • Brisbane Lions ($21)

  • Melbourne ($65)

  • Western Bulldogs ($95)

  • Collingwood ($110)

  • Carlton ($125)

  • St Kilda ($180)

  • Gold Coast ($180)

  • GWS ($325)

  • Port Adelaide ($2,250)

  • North Melbourne ($4,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 952,712 different Top 18s

  • 379,664 different Top 10s (and 641 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 1,956 different Top 4s (and 192 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are a mix of lower, higher, and unchanged compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 3-in-25 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 12% from 14%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-11 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 27% from 25%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (steady at 35%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s still about a 9-in-25 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (steady at 36%)