2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 12

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle and Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 75-85% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS and Collingwood: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with equal to or better than a 3-in-7 chances of finishing Top 10

  • 6 teams with equal to or better than about a 1-in-8 chance of finishing Top 4

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Sydney ($4)

  • Fremantle ($5.40)

  • Geelong ($5.45)

  • Hawthorn ($5.65)

  • Adelaide ($23)

  • Brisbane Lions ($26.50)

  • Gold Coast ($36)

  • Western Bulldogs ($51)

  • Melbourne ($55)

  • Collingwood ($70)

  • GWS ($80)

  • St Kilda ($120)

  • Carlton ($175)

  • North Melbourne ($600)

  • Port Adelaide ($800)

  • West Coast ($350,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 998,708 different Top 18s

  • 782,796 different Top 10s (and 1,392 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 3,995 different Top 4s (and 493 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are a mix of lower, higher, and unchanged compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-7 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 14% from 17%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 2-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 22% from 23%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 35% from 32%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 2-in-5 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 39% from 35%)