2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 11

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 35-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 70-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 90% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Adelaide, and Gold Coast: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda and GWS: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne Carlton, and Port Adelaide: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 12 teams with equal to or better than a 4-in-9 chances of finishing Top 10

  • 8 teams with equal to or better than about a 1-in-8 chance of finishing Top 4

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 11.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong ($4.25)

  • Sydney ($5)

  • Fremantle ($6)

  • Hawthorn ($6.70)

  • Brisbane Lions ($20)

  • Adelaide ($25)

  • Melbourne ($35)

  • Gold Coast ($40)

  • Western Bulldogs ($55)

  • Collingwood ($55)

  • St Kilda ($75)

  • GWS ($125)

  • Carlton ($350)

  • North Melbourne ($600)

  • Port Adelaide ($700)

  • West Coast ($250,000)

  • Essendon ($1,250,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 999,369 different Top 18s

  • 820,838 different Top 10s (and 1,543 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 5,878 different Top 4s (and 604 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are a mix of lower, higher, and unchanged compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (steady at 17%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-13 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 23% from 25%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (up to 32% from 30%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 7-in-20 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (up to 35% from 31%)