2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 10

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 45-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 35% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. GWS and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Carlton: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have then:

  • 11 teams with equal to or better than a 3-in-5 chances of finishing Top 10

  • Six teams with equal to or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 10th for most teams for 12 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 6th for most teams for 14.5 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 16 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 18.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with rough fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Sydney ($4.60)

  • Geelong ($5.10)

  • Fremantle ($6.40)

  • Hawthorn ($6.70)

  • Brisbane Lions ($10)

  • Adelaide ($27)

  • Gold Coast ($30)

  • Melbourne ($36)

  • Collingwood ($45)

  • Western Bulldogs ($55)

  • St Kilda ($70)

  • Port Adelaide ($270)

  • GWS ($360)

  • Carlton ($850)

  • North Melbourne ($500)

  • Essendon ($50,000)

  • West Coast ($300,000)

COMBINATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 1,000,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 999,436 different Top 18s

  • 816,247 different Top 10s (and 1,576 different sets of 10 teams in them)

  • 6,594 different Top 4s (and 618 different sets of 4 teams in them)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are a mix of lower, higher, and unchanged compared to last week’s, and are:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 17% from 14%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 1-in-4 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down to 25% from 26%)

  • AVOID WILDCARD ROUND: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 6th will be decided on percentages (steady at 30%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 3-in-10 chance that 10th will be decided on percentages (down to 31% from 32%)