The latest simulations of the Final series using the methodology described here are summarised below, firstly in a chart that looks at teams' chances for various Finals finishes. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals.
In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $2.95 for Richmond, $3.65 for Collingwood,, $6.35 for Geelong, $10 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for West Coast and GWS.
If we define the season in terms of the five events listed above, the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:
Lose a Preliminary Final: Richmond and Collingwood (note though that both are more likely to play in a Grand Final than to go out in a Preliminary Final)
Lose a Semi Final: West Coast and GWS
MATCHUPS DURING THE FINALS
In this chart we look at the profile of the matchups that see each team exit the competition or win the Grand Final.
We see, for example, that Geelong and Richmond are the only teams more likely to win a Grand Final than lose one, should they make it.
GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS
In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.
Only nine Grand Final pairings are now possible. In order, the chances of each of them occurring are now estimated to be:
Richmond v Collingwood: 33.9%
Geelong v Collingwood: 16.6%
Brisbane Lions v Richmond: 14.2%
Richmond v GWS: 9.8%
Collingwood v West Coast: 8.2%
Brisbane Lions v Geelong: 7.0%
Geelong v GWS: 4.7%
Brisbane Lions v West Coast: 3.5%
West Coast v GWS: 2.3%