The latest simulations of the Final series using the methodology described here are summarised below, firstly in a chart that looks at teams' chances for various Finals finishes. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the specified team went out in the specified week of the Finals.
In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $3.55 for Richmond, $4.25 for Geelong, $5.15 for Collingwood, $6 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for Western Bulldogs, $30 for West Coast, $60 for GWS, and $200 for Essendon.
If we define the season in terms of the five events listed above, the most-likely finishes for each team are estimated to be:
Lose a Preliminary Final: Geelong, Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and Collingwood (note though that Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Richmond are all more likely to play in a Grand Final than to go out in a Preliminary Final)
Lose a Semi Final: West Coast
Lose an Elimination Final: GWS, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs
MATCHUPS DURING THE FINALS
In this chart we look at the profile of the matchups that see each team exit the competition or win the Grand Final.
We see, for example, that if Geelong are to go out in a Preliminary Final, it’ll most likely be to Richmond or Brisbane Lions. We also see that the majority of their Grand Final victories come from playing Collingwood.
GRAND FINAL PAIRINGS
In this final chart we look at all of the Grand Final pairings that occurred in at least one of the simulation replicates. The numbers shown inside a cell are the percentage of simulation replicates (multiplied by 100) in which the team named in the row defeated the team named in the column in the Grand Final.
In order, the most-likely Grand Final pairings are now estimated to be:
Brisbane Lions v Richmond: estimated 17.1% chance
Geelong v Collingwood: 15.8%
Geelong v Richmond: 12.3%
Richmond v Collingwood: 10.9%
Geelong v Brisbane Lions: 9.6%
Brisbane Lions v Collingwood: 8.2%
No other pairing has an estimated probability above about 3%.
(Note that zeroes in the chart represent pairings that did occur at least once but in less than 0.05% of replicates.)