Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 17

If you're a Pies, Dogs or Carlton supporter - or, I guess, an Eagles supporter with a contrarian nature and a willingness to profit from adversity - you've much to be happy about following last weekend's results and their effect on your team's chances of participating come September.

Minor Premiership Market

In the race for the minor premiership, the Pies' win and the Saints' draw combined to lift the Pies' chances by over 11%, making them now fair value at any price over $1.60. Most of what the Pies gained, the Saints lost. Their chances for the minor premiership roughly halved to just 10%, so you'd be wanting more than a $10 price before you should be contemplating a flutter on them. The Cats' chances also diminished but for them only by about 1.5% making them now a little better than a one-in-four prospect to head the ladder at the end of the home-and-away season.

It's interesting to note that the TAB bookie made a much smaller adjustment than we did to the Pies' premiership chances on the basis of Round 17 results, but that was partly because he had, in the opinion of me and my simulations, misrated the Pies' chances before the round. Anyway, he still hasn't done enough and the Pies are a value bet at $1.80. (I've denoted value bets in the table below by making the relevant price boldface.)

In other premiership market reratings, the TAB bookie had the Cats firming slightly whereas we had them easing slightly. Neither the Cats nor Saints represent value in the premiership market.

Here are the full results of the new simulations. 

Top 4 Market

Turning next to the Top 4 market, the simulations show that the Pies, Cats and Saints, who all picked up at least some competition points last weekend, enhanced their already sterling chances of a top 4 finish. The Dogs meantime, in demolishing Freo, lifted their prospects significantly, so much so that they are now about 3/1 on chances for the remaining top 4 spot. The roughly 17% increase in the Dogs' chances was approximately matched by an equally-sized decline in Freo's who are now 3/1 against chances for a top 4 finish.

Hawthorn also benefited from their draw and Freo's loss, but only very slightly. They remain only the roughest of top 4 chances. Sydney and Carlton remain even rougher chances - a 40 Grit to the Hawks' 80 Grit to borrow some sandpaper lingo. 

In this market too the TAB bookie's more significant reratings were smaller than ours, and again this served only to more closely align his ratings with ours. As such, there are no identified value bets in the top 4 market. 

Finals Market

Hawthorn's finals aspirations were also enhanced over the weekend leaving them now virtual certainties for a spot in September. Carlton though were the weekend's big movers on the final 8 market, moving from about a 65% chance to a 90% chance. Melbourne were the only other team to record a significant increase in their probability of making the finals - from about a 2% to a 7.5% chance. The TAB bookie made a much larger adjustment to Melbourne's chances, leaving them priced way too short. 

Sydney, the Roos and Adelaide all dented their final 8 chances on the weekend, Sydney's falling by about 9% to a still-healthy 82%, the Roos' falling by 12% to 17%, and Adelaide's falling by over 13% to just 7.5%. 

Only one team appears to offer value in this market: Carlton at $1.20. 

The Spoon Market

Lastly, let's consider the Spoon market where West Coast, in losing to the Blues, significantly tightened their grip on the cutlery. Their chances grew from about 40% to 56% on the strength of their 26-point loss. The Lions and Richmond, via their respective losses, also elevated their Spoon chances, to about 1-in-3 for Richmond and 1-in-14 for the Lions.

Essendon, Port and Melbourne all recorded wins, which made their likelihood of snaring the Spoon even more remote. 

No team currently offers value in the Spoon market. 

In summary: 

  • Collingwood represent value in the minor premiership market at $1.80
  • Carlton represent value in the finals market at $1.20