Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 18

The weekend results for St Kilda, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast were the ones that most reshaped the various ladder position markets.

Minor Premiership Market

St Kilda, in losing to the Dons, virtually eliminated any possibility of them taking out this season's minor premiership. Simulation results suggest that there is only about a 1-in-1,000 chance of them leapfrogging the Pies and the Cats over the remaining four rounds.

The Saints' estimated probability dropped by about 10% points, three-quarters of which was absorbed by the Cats, who are now rated by the simulations as about a 1-in-3 chance for the minor premiership. Collingwood are rated about a 2-in-3 chance.

Top 4 Market

Here too the Saints were hurt by their loss, shedding about 8.5% points from their probability of a Top 4 finish, leaving it at just over 90%. Freo was the big gainer on the simulations in this market, climbing almost 8% points to now be almost a 1-in-3 chance for a Top 4 finish.

There's scant value in this market, though the Saints do offer the barest hint at $1.15. The simulations suggest their fair value price is $1.11. No-one is going to get rich at a speed anything other than glacially with that sized edge.

Hawthorn, according to the simulation results, are ridiculously priced in this market. They're at $51 when the fair value price is more like $1,000.

Finals Market

Melbourne boosted their finals hopes by a massive 15% points by knocking over the Lions at the Gabba over the weekend. The Dees are now better than 1-in-5 chances for a spot in the Finals.

In contrast, Sydney and Adelaide dented their respective chances, in the Swans' case by almost 7% points and in the Crows' by just over 5% points. Sydney are now roughly 75% chances for a Top 8 finish and Adelaide are a bit under 1-in-40 chances.

Carlton, whose loss knocked 3.5% points from their finals probability, still have the barest scent of value about them at a price of $1.20. With the simulations suggesting their probability of making the finals is about 86%, Carlton would be fair value at $1.16.

The Spoon Market

Richmond, over the weekend, lopped a massive 23% points from their probability of collecting the Spoon, which now stands at only 7.5%. They are, however, the only team offering value in the Spoon Market - frankly the only team offering serious value in any of the ladder position markets - being priced as they are at $21 when fair value is just $13.30.

All of the probability that Richmond shed, and a little bit more, was used by the Eagles to feather their Spoon nest. They are now estimated to be almost 80% chances for the Spoon.

The Lions were the only other team whose Spoon prospects grew over the weekend, though theirs only by about 5% points to leave them at a bit over a 1-in-8 chances.

Here are the full results of the new simulations. 

This week I'm providing a supplementary table, which contains additional detail about the simulated results for each team.

From this table you can find the most likely ladder finish for each team, other relatively high-probability potential finishes, and the mathematically (well, statistically) best and worst possible finishes. Please bear in mind that all these results are based on 100,000 simulations so 95% confidence intervals are about +/- 0.3%.

Perhaps the most interesting fact shown in this table is that the most likely ladder position finish for the teams currently in the top 8 is their current ladder position.

In summary, the value in the ladder position markets is as follows:

  • Minor Premiership Market: no value
  • Top 4 Market: wafer-thin edge on the Saints at $1.15 (fair price $1.11)
  • Finals Market: equally non-nutritive edge on the Blues at $1.20 (fair price $1.16)
  • Spoon Market: worthwhile edge on the Tigers at $21 (fair price $13.30), though there's less than a 1-in-12 chance of realising the assessed advantage