AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 12
/WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:
1-in-3: Adelaide and North Melbourne
1-in-4: Brisbane
1-in-16: Geelong
AFLW Round 12 Results - Half and Half
/WoSHBODS, again this week, opted for a full house of favourites, and so finished with just one tip correct from two. It also recorded a Margin MAE of 27.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 5 points per game. That took it to a season long 70% accuracy, 19.1 Margin MAE, and 18.3 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 12 - Unders/Overs
/WoSHBODS has taken the overs in the Dees v Cats game.
AFLW 2023 - Round 12
/WoSHBODS has very different ideas about the relative chances of the four teams in this week’s semi-finals, which sees it forecasting comfortable wins by both favourites.
Part of the reason for this is that, as currently parameterised, WoSHBODS does not update team ratings after Round 8 - a decision that will be reviewed in light of the new data provided by the 2023 season.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 11
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
Read MoreAFLW Round 11 Results - Aggressive Regression
/Only one of the four favourites won this week, and WoSHBODS, having gone favourite-heavy - usually not a bad strategy in Finals - therefore tipped just 1 winner. It also recorded a Margin MAE of 28.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game. That took it to a season long 71% accuracy, 18.9 Margin MAE, and 18.6 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 11 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 10:15AM SUNDAY
Investors are, again, on the overs in the second game today
UPDATE 11:15AM SATURDAY
Investors are on the overs in the second game today
AFLW 2023 - Round 11
/It’s wall-to-wall favourites for WoSHBODS this week, and all of them forecast to win by larger margins than the markets think.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 10
/WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:
40%: Melbourne
20-30%: Adelaide and North Melbourne
10%: Brisbane
0.5-1%: Gold Coast, Geelong
Essentially 0%: Essendon, Sydney
AFLW Round 10 Results - Regression Squared
/WoSHBODS tipped just 6 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 29.6 points per game and a Totals MAE of 20 points per game. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 18.5 Margin MAE, and 18.9 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY
Two unders bets today to complete the dance card.
UPDATE 12:55PM SATURDAY
Four bets today - two unders and two overs - and there would have been a fifth, another overs, but for the Brisbane forecast.
AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 9
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, andNorth Melbourne
Tier 2 (99%+ chances to play Finals): Brisbane
Tier 3 (85-90% chances to play Finals and 25-50% chances of Top 4): Essendon and Gold Coast
Tier 4 (90% chances to play Finals and 0% chances of Top 4): Geelong
Tier 5 (40-50% chances to play Finals): Collingwood, St Kilda, and Sydney
Tier 6 (<2% chances to play Finals): Fremantle, Carlton, and Richmond
Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs
AFLW 2023 - Round 10
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset again this week, this time the Dockers over the Swans.
It expects:
Adelaide (74) to be the highest scoring team
West Coast (7) to be the lowest scoring team
Brisbane v Melbourne (105) to be the highest scoring game
Collingwood v Richmond (66) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4 home teams to win, and 6.6 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW Round 9 Results - Redressed
/WoSHBODS tipped 7 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 19 points per game and a Totals MAE of 10.4 points per game. That took it to a season long 74% accuracy, 17.2 Margin MAE, and 18.8 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 9 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY
Two overs bets today - one in the first game, and one in the last.
UPDATE 12 NOON SATURDAY
Just the one bet today - an unders on the Essendon v Carlton game
(We would have been on the overs in last night’s game were it not for the forecast of rain.)
AFLW 2023 - Round 9
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping only one upset this week as it finds itself with a very different opinion about the relative abilities of the Eagles and the Dogs.
It expects:
Melbourne (68) to be the highest scoring team
Fremantle (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Gold Coast v GWS (94) to be the highest scoring game
Adelaide v North Melbourne (68) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 4.5 home teams to win, and 7.1 favourites.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 8
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 90%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Collingwood and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (75-80% chances to play Finals): Essendon and Geelong
Tier 4 (15-25% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Richmond, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Fremantle
Tier 6 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
AFLW Round 8 Results - Regressed
/WoSHBODS tipped only 4 winners this week, and recorded a Margin MAE of 21.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game in what can only be described as a textbook regression towards the mean. That took it to a season long 73% accuracy, 17.0 Margin MAE, and 19.8 Totals MAE.
Read MoreAFLW 2023 - Round 8 - Unders/Overs
/UPDATE 1:30PM SUNDAY
WoSHBODS has taken the unders in the Fremantle game (and would have taken the overs in the Collingwood game but for the forecast of showers)
UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY
WoSHBODS has taken two overs bets today.
UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY
WoSHBODS has taken u77.5 in tonight’s game
AFLW 2023 - Round 8
/WoSHBODS’ is tipping one (or maybe two) upsets this week: Geelong to narrowly beat Collingwood, and Adelaide to beat Brisbane, which is only an upset according to Sportsbet.
It expects:
Gold Coast (63) to be the highest scoring team
West Coas (23) to be the lowest scoring team
Western Bulldogs v Sydney (100) to be the highest scoring game
Hawthorn v Richmond (67) to be the lowest scoring game
It also expects 3.8 home teams to win, and 6.4 favourites.
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