AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 11

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, now only for the Finals, (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

  • 35%: Melbourne

  • 25%: Adelaide and North Melbourne

  • 15%: Brisbane

  • <1%: Geelong and Sydney

The market currently orders them this way:

  • 32%: North Melbourne

  • 25%: Brisbane

  • 19%: Melbourne

  • 15%: Adelaide

  • 5%: Geelong

  • 3%: Sydney

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Melbourne (about 15%), Brisbane and Adelaide (both about 10% points).