AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 12

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The results of this year’s post Round 12 simulations appear below.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.85)

  • Geelong (about $5.50)

  • Melbourne (about $6.25)

  • Carlton (about $13)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $65)

  • Hawthorn (about $85)

  • Gold Coast (about $210)

  • Sydney (about $240)

Interestingly, the teams that finished 7th and 8th (Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn) on the competition ladder are assessed as having greater Flag chances than the teams that finished 5th and 6th (Gold Coast and Sydney).

In the plot below we record the team-versus-team results in the Finals simulations.

We can see, for example, that Gold Coast go out a little over half the time and about equally often at the hands of Geelong and Melbourne. Also, if Melbourne win the Flag it’s most often via a victory over North Melbourne.

Lastly, let’s look at the Grand Final simulation results alone.

We can see that the most likely Grand Final outcome is a North Melbourne win over Melbourne (17.5%), followed by a North Melbourne win over Geelong (15.2%) and then a North Melbourne win over Carlton (14.4%). The three most likely outcomes after those are for North Melbourne losing to those same three opponents.

It’s also possible to calculate from this table the conditional probability that a team wins the Grand Final given that they make, and these numbers are:

  • North Melbourne: 71%

  • Geelong: 47%

  • Hawthorn: 39%

  • Melbourne: 37%

  • Gold Coast: 29%

  • Carlton: 28%

  • Sydney: 22%

  • Western Bulldogs: 21%