WoSHBODS is forecasting three home team and one away team wins this week, differing in its choice of winner compared to the bookmakers only in the first game of the round where it has Melbourne defeating Geelong.

The average absolute difference between WoSHBODS’ and the bookmaker’s margin forecasts is 6.9 points per game, and the range is from 3.2 points for the Roos v Blues game to 9.6 points for the Swans v Dogs game.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

Under 2 goals: 1 game
From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games
Over 4 goals: 1 game

The bookmakers would have 3 games in the first category and 1 game in the third.

The average expected absolute margin is 14.3 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 12.3 points per game according to the bookmaker.

WAGERS

The table below documents the round’s wagers and records a lot more action this week.

Overall, Investors have a line market interest in eight games, and a head-to-head interest in all nine, with every bet on an underdog.

The head-to-head bets total just under 12% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets just under 17% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, just under 14% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk. A best possible set of results would lift the price of the Combined Portfolio by just over 22c.