AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 8

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This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide and West Coast: about 65-85% chances of being finalists; around 2-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, Sydney, and Geelong: about 40-45% chance of being finalists; around <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood: around 5-10% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, Gold Coast, and Essendon: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with about a 2-in-5 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and five with about or better than a 3-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although 7.5 wins would provide near certainty for most. Brisbane and Collingwood have reasonable estimated chances with as few as 5.5 to 6 wins.

TOP 2s and Top 4s

Across the 10,000 simulation replicates, only 11 different combinations of teams appeared as the Top 2 at the end of the home and away season and they are shown in the table at right.

About two-thirds of those replicates had North Melbourne in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd, and over 99% of them had North Melbourne in 1st with some other team in 2nd.

In another 0.4% of replicates North Melbourne finish in 2nd place behind either Melbourne or Hawthorn.

Two pairings appeared only once in the 10,000 replicates: Melbourne and Carlton, and North Melbourne and Adelaide.



The simulations offered a lot more variety in terms of final Top 4s. Overall, there were 97 of them, the top 10 of which are shown in the table at left.

North Melbourne again dominates and appears in 1st place in all of the quartets, with Melbourne filling 2nd place in all but four where Hawthorn or Carlton takes their place.

Together, these 10 combinations represent just under 80% of all replicates.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now almost a 3-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (59% up from 53%)

  • There’s just under a 4-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (43% down from 51%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-25 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (4% down from 6%)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.35)

  • Brisbane (about $7.15)

  • Melbourne (about $11.10)

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final now involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in just under 29% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne, which occurs in 27% of all replicates.

Another 11% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, and another 8% by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne.

North Melbourne defeating Carlton or Hawthorn accounts for a further 16% and the reverse of those two results about another 2%.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 92% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 44%, Melbourne in 38%, Carlton in 11%, and Hawthorn in 10%