WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, and the bookmakers 7, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 51 from 72 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 20.8 points per game (compared to 22.6 and 22.7 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 18.5 points per game (compared to 17.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +1.7 bits compares to +1.7 and +1.6 bits for the two bookmakers.

Another very acceptable round.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re now at 71% accuracy for the season, 24.2 Game Margin MAE, and 16.6 Totals MAE, and +11.4 LPS.

TEAM-BY-TEAM FORECASTING STATISTICS

Let’s look again firstly at how forecastable teams have been in terms of their final margins.

In the table at right we have WoSHBODS’ MAE by team, which reveals that now Hawthorn’s final margins have been easiest to predict, and Melbourne’s most difficult.

For Hawthorn, WoSHBODS has, on average, been within 2 goals of their final margin while for Melbourne the error has been just over five goals, on average.

Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, and Carlton have also been relatively easy to predict, while Essendon, Collingwood, and Gold Coast have proven to be most difficult.

Next let’s look at LPS by team, which essentially measures how predictable, in a probabilistic sense, each team’s win and loss record has been (and which is I think showed the results only for a round or two last week).

Here we find that the records of North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Essendon have been easiest to probability estimate, and those of GWS and Sydney most difficult.

FORECAST ACCURACY BY FINAL MARGIN

WoSHBODS has moved to 19 and 9 (68%) in games decided by less than three goals, which feels like an unsustainable pace, although it does plummet to 2 and 9 for games decided by 18 to 23 points.

It’s also recorded quite small MAEs for games decided by less than three goals and has really only suffered in the now 16 blowout games decided by six goals or more and where its MAE is 43 points per game.

WAGERS

This week there were profits for the Head-to-Head and Line Funds, and another small loss for the Overs/UInders Fund.

Altogether, the healthy Line Fund profit meant that the Combined Portfolio rose by 4c to finish down by only 0.1c on a -0.1% ROI and a 0.96 turn.

(More astute/skeptical readers might have noticed that I have restated the returns for Rounds 4, 5, and 6 in this latest update. In more detail, the profit for Round 4 has increased by 0.8c, while that for Round 5 has decreased by 0.5c, and that for Round 6 has also decreased but by 0.2c. Altogether the adjust has been about a 0.1c improvement and it comes about purely from miscalculations of Line Fund wagers in those runs, all of themdue to shenanigans that make the calculations more complex).

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

WoS Win Production Function: +0.96
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.88
Points Conceded: +0.85
Q3 Performances: +0.85
Goals Conceded: +0.84
Points Scored: +0.81
Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.8
Goals Scored: +0.77
Q1 Performances: +0.76
Scoring Shots Generated: +0.73

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.21
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.43

Hawthorn’s statistics continue to be interesting and include a 16th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 14th on Own Goals Scored and 12th on Own Points Scored, 11th on Q1 Performances, and 12th on Q4 Performances. Still odd for a team sitting 3rd on the ladder.

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

North Melbourne are yet to lose a Q2.
North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by roughly 2:1 or more in every quarter, and more than 7:1 in Q2s
Melbourne have outscored their opponents also by roughly 2:1 or more in every quarter, but by more than 2.7:1 in Q1s, Q2s, and Q3s
North Melbourne and Melbourne are joined by Carlton as the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are still Collingwood, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond.
Brisbane, North Melbourne and Melbourne are now the only teams to have generated more scoring shots than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Conversely, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond remain the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Fremantle have converted at 82% in Q1s, but have also allowed their opponents to convert at 78% in the same quarter
Port Adelaide, Fremantle, and Geelong have all allowed their opponents to convert at or better than 70% in Q4s.
Fremantle have scored only 12% of their points in Q3s.
Western Bulldogs have conceded only 11% of all they’ve conceded in Q1s, and Brisbane only 13% in Q4s.
West Coast have scored 39% of their total score in Q3s.
Brisbane have conceded 38% of the total conceded in Q2s, Port Adelaide 39% in Q4s, and Geelong 40% in Q4s.
North Melbourne have registered more behinds than 15 teams have registered goals.