AFLW 2025 - Round 9

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 9 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about six-and-a-half goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about nine goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just two underdogs (Western Bulldogs and Carlton) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 22.3 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 26.2 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

This week has offered incontrovertible evidence the partial derivative of shenanigans with respect to recent profitability has a positive sign.

At right is the table showing what Investors wanted and what they secured, which is some cases includes entire refusals at the initial price.

In aggregate, WoSHBODS has six head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.6% to 5.3% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just over 18% of that Fund.

It also has line wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.4% to 5.1% of the original Line Fund and totalling just under 21% of that Fund.

They include what is I think for the first time ever, a suite of line bets on a single team that includes four different lines.

One thing that I think is telling is that, on the day after I made these bets (Tuesday) the lines seem to have steadied at the line we got. It’s almost as if we helped the market find its level …

Aggregated, that means around 18% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend. That’s about as ludicrous as last week, but at least we now have a precedent that it might not be sheer folly.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

By far the most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Western Bulldogs v Essendon game. A Dogs win of any size will add 5.2c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss by more than 10 points will lop 4.4c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

That’s almost a 10c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:

  • WesternBulldogs (v Essendon): 9.6c swing

  • Brisbane (v Port Adelaide): 6.4c swing

  • Carlton (v Sydney): 5.3c swing

  • Geelong (v GWS): 4.9c swing

  • Hawthorn (v Gold Coast): 3c swing

  • Collingwood v (St Kilda): 2.8c swing

  • North Melbourne (v Richmond): 1.8c swing

  • West Coast (v Adelaide): 1.1c swing

Altogther, as noted, about 18% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 14 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of 17c.