AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 10

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This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-95% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Carlton, Adelaide, and West Coast: about 80-90% chances of being finalists; around 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 45% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle: around 15% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs: around 1-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Geelong Essendon, Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 8 teams with about a 3-in-4 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and four with about or better than an 85% chance of finishing Top 4.

It still looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8 although Fremantle are only 50-50 chances because of their very poor percentage of 72. Now, 7.5 wins would provide near certainty for all teams that can end with that many.

TOP 2s and Top 4s

Across the 10,000 simulation replicates, only four different combinations of teams appeared as the Top 2 at the end of the home and away season, and one of those combinations only once. They are shown in the table at right.

Just over 80% of those replicates had North Melbourne in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd, and another just under 15% had North Melbourne in 1st and Brisbane in 2nd.

The simulations offered a little more variety in terms of final Top 4s. Overall, there were 36 of them, the top 10 of which are shown in the table at left.

North Melbourne again dominates and appears in 1st place in all of the quartets, with Melbourne filling 2nd place in six quartets, Brisbane in three, and Hawthorn in one.

Carlton appear in two quartets, but never higher than 4th.

Together, these 10 combinations represent just over 95% of all replicates.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now only about a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (40% down from 55%)

  • There’s a 1-in-2 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (50% down from 52%)

  • There’s now virtually no chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (0% down from 3%)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.40)

  • Brisbane (about $7.15)

  • Melbourne (about $9.10)

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

We see that the most common finishes, assuming a team makes finals, are:

  • Lose an Elimination Final: Carlton, Fremantle, Geelong, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Lose a Semi Final: Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, and West Coast

  • Lose a Preliminary Final: Hawthorn

  • Win a Grand Final: North Melbourne

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final now involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne, which occurs in just under 32% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in 29% of all replicates.

Another 10% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, and another 8% by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 91% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 46%, Melbourne in 46%, and Hawthorn in 9%.