WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did bpth bookmakers, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 64 from 81 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 19.3 points per game (compared to 26.2 and 26.4 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 15.6 points per game (compared to 15.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.5 bits compares to +1.4 and +1.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

Very pleasing again.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re now at 71% accuracy for the season, 23.5 Game Margin MAE, and 16.2 Totals MAE, and +18.2 LPS.

TEAM-BY-TEAM FORECASTING STATISTICS

Let’s look again firstly at how forecastable teams have been in terms of their final margins.

In the table at right we have WoSHBODS’ MAE by team, which reveals that now Brisbane’s final margins have been easiest to predict, and Melbourne’s still most difficult.

For Brisbane, Richmond, Hawthorn, and Geelong, WoSHBODS has, on average, been within 3 goals of their final margin while for Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Essendon, and Melbourne the error has been around five goals, on average.

Next let’s look at LPS by team, which essentially measures how predictable, in a probabilistic sense, each team’s win and loss record has been.

Here we find that the records of North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle have continued to be easiest to probability estimate, and those of GWS Sydney, and St Kilda still most difficult.

Encouragingly, for two-thirds of the teams, the season-long LPS aggregate is positive.

FORECAST ACCURACY BY FINAL MARGIN

WoSHBODS has moved to 20 and 10 (67%) in games decided by less than three goals, which still feels like an unsustainable pace, although it does now plummet to 4 and 9 for games decided by 18 to 23 points.

It’s also recorded quite small MAEs for games decided by less than three goals and has really only suffered in the 17 blowout games decided by six goals or more and where its MAE is 42 points per game.

WAGERS

This week was about as good as one could wish for, with sizeable profits for the Head-to-Head and Line Funds, and a small loss for the Overs/UInders Fund.

Altogether, the Combined Portfolio rose by over 12c to finish up by over 15c for the season on a +11.5% ROI and a 1.3 turn.

There’s now a severe shenanigans warning for tomorrow.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

WoS Win Production Function: +0.9
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.87
Q3 Performances: +0.83
Points Conceded: +0.82
Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.8
Goals Conceded: +0.79
Goals Scored: +0.77
Points Scored: +0.75
Q2 Performances: +0.73
Scoring Shots Generated: +0.7
Q4 Performances: +0.7

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.23
Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.46

At this stage, the team outside the Top 8 whose statistics most suggest it should perhaps be inside the Top 8 is Western Bulldogs.

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

North Melbourne are still yet to lose a Q2.
North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by 2.6:1 or more in every quarter, and almost 8:1 in Q2s
Melbourne have outscored their opponents by roughly 2:1 or more in every quarter, but by more than 4:1 in Q2s
North Melbourne and Melbourne are joined by Brisbane as the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are still Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond.
Brisbane, North Melbourne and Melbourne are the only teams to have generated more scoring shots than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Conversely, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, and Richmond are the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Fremantle have converted at 73% in Q1s, but have also allowed their opponents to convert at 75% in the same quarter
Collingwood have converted at 68% in Q1s, and North Melbourne at 69% in Q3s.
Western Bulldogs have converted at just 28% in Q1s, as have Collingwoof in Q2s
Fremantle have allowed their opponents to convert at 69% in Q4s.
Melborne have allowed their opponents to convert at only 19% in Q2s.
Fremantle have scored 36% of their points in Q1s, West Coast 38% in Q4s, and Adelaide 35% on Q4s, and Richmond 35% in Q3s.
Western Bulldogs have conceded only 11% of all they’ve conceded in Q1s, and North Melbourne only 10% in Q2s.
North Melbourne have registered more behinds than every team except Melbourne have registered goals.