AFLW 2025 - Round 11

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According to the bookmakers, Round 11 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Five games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees eight of nine favourites winning, four of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The sole forecast underdog winner is Western Bulldogs, narrowly, over Geelong.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 17 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

Relatively modest wagering limited shenanigans to just two line markets - those for North Melbourne and Collingwood.

In aggregate, WoSHBODS has seven head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.5% to 4.8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling a far more sensible though still cocky 10% of that Fund.

It also has line wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.3% to 4.1% of the original Line Fund and totalling also about 10% of that Fund.

Combined, that means that around 9% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend - about half of what was at risk last weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

The most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Collingwood v Gold Coast game. A Pies win by 8 points or more will add 1.8c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss of any size will lop 2.5c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

That’s over a 4c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:

  • Collingwood (v Gold Coast): 4.3% swing

  • Port Adelaide (v Adelaide): 2.6% swing

  • North Melbourne (v St Kilda): 1.9% swing

  • Carlton (v GWS): 1.8% swing

  • Essendon (v Hawthorn): 1.7% swing

  • West Coast (v Sydney): 1.5% swing

  • Brisbane (v Melbourne): 1% swing

  • Richmond (v Fremantle): 0.7% swing

  • Western Bulldogs (v Geelong): 0.6% swing

Altogether, as noted, about 8% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 15 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just over 8c.