AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 7

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 99%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne

  • Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals and 25-35% for Top 4): Essendon, Brisbane, and Gold Coast

  • Tier 3 (65-80% chances to play Finals and 5-10% for Top 4): Geelong and Collingwood

  • Tier 4 (40% chances to play Finals): Carlton

  • Tier 5 (10-20% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Richmond

  • Tier 6 (<5% chances to play Finals): Sydney, Fremantle, and Hawthorn

  • Tier 7 (0% chances to play Finals): GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Brisbane: +12% points (to 96%)

  • Essendon: +12% points (to 90%)

  • Geelong: +11% points (to 79%)

  • Collingwood: +10% points (to 63%)

  • Richmond: -17% points (to 12%)

  • Carlton: -14% points (to 39%)

  • Sydney: -11% points (to 4%)

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

The Flag remains mostly a race in three between Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide, with Melbourne the clear favourite.

That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they still rate Brisbane higher.