AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 6

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).

So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

  • Tier 1 (99%+ chances to play Finals and 98% for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, and North Melbourne

  • Tier 2 (95%+ chances to play Finals and 50% for Top 4): Gold Coast

  • Tier 3 (80-85% chances to play Finals and 15-20% for Top 4): Essendon and Brisbane

  • Tier 4 (50-70% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Geelong, and Collingwood

  • Tier 5 (15-30% chances to play Finals): Richmond, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Tier 6 (5% chances to play Finals): Fremantle

  • Tier 6 (Less than 0.1% chances to play Finals): and Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast

The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:

  • Collingwood: +21% points (to 53%)

  • Essendon: +21% points (to 78%)

  • Geelong: -21% points (to 68%)

  • Brisbane: -11% points (to 85%)

And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.

The Flag is now mostly a race in three between Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide.

That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they still rate Brisbane higher.