AFLW 2023 - Round 4

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WoSHBODS’ assessments of the relative merits of a number of teams continues to deviate from the bookmakers’, which has resulted in its forecasting generally larger margins including by as much as 3 goals in some cases.

On the wagering front we therefore unsurprisngly have a good deal of action: five head-to-head bets totalling a startling 35% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund, all of them on favourites, and four line bets totalling just under 9% of the original Line Fund, two on underdogs, all of them also on favourites. Altogether, about 16% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk.

The Head-to-Head Fund and Line Fund records this year can now be broken down as per the table at right.

This week’s wagering breaks down as:

Head-to-Head

  • Home Favourites: 11.8%%

  • Home Dogs: 0%

  • Away Favourites: 22.9%

  • Away Dogs: 0%

Line

  • Home Favourites: 3.3%

  • Home Dogs: 0%

  • Away Favourites: 5.4%

  • Away Dogs: 0%

If ever there was going to be a week to test the wisdom of allowing head-to-head wagers on away teams, this will surely be it.