2025 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay

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UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 5 points.

UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay’s opinions about the Friday and Saturday games hasn’t changed, but it’s made some slight alterations to its thinking about the Sunday games with the emergencies now named.

UPDATE FRIDAY 12:15AM

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the remainder of Round 1.

It seems that MoSHPlay might not stray too far from MoSHBODS this season.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:45PM

Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game.

It has the Blues winning by 5 points more than does MoSHBODS.

2025 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders

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There’s certainly some divergence of opinion at the level of the individual game about the likely total score it will produce but, overall, only a couple of points difference in the all-game averages for the four forecasters.

One particularly interesting feature for me is how different are the MoS twins’ forecasts in a number of games, bearing in mind that, this season, MoSSBODS has been optimised to predict Game Totals and MoSHBODS to predict Game Margins.

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2025 - Round 1 : Some Differences of Opinion

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This week we move from less than a half of a half of a round to a full round of nine games, and we get to see just how differently the models and the bookmakers are viewing the 18 teams at this point in the season.

Those bookmakers see seven of the nine games this week as being won by under three goals, an eighth game being won by just under three-and-a-half goals, and only a single game being won by just over eight goals. The nine-game average is just 15.3 points per game.

The MoS models have very different views about two of the games. Let’s take a look at which.

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2025 - Round 0 : Does Your Model Account for Cyclones?

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As we all watch on and hope that Cyclone Alfred, like the good butler that is its namesake, makes itself similarly scarce and unobtrusive, many football forecasters are presented with the challenge of deciding what, if any, adjustments to make to their forecasts to cater for the possibility that the games in Brisbane and the Gold Coast go ahead but are severely rain-affected.

The bookmakers, of course, are some who face this challenge, but appear to be currently framing markets assuming very much the best. Those markets have the two Queensland teams as about 2 goal favourites, Sydney as narrow favourites, and the Giants v Pies game as a pick ‘em.

The MoS models, weather-blind as they are, are also forecasting as if nothing with happen.

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MoS for the Men's 2025 AFL Season

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For those purely interested in MoS forecasts, 2025 will look a lot like 2024, although there will have been non-trivial changes under the hood for the underlying algorithms that provide those forecasts. For those also - or instead - interested in the wagering, the differences will be a bit more substantial.

There will, once again, be weekly posts predicting results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals. There might even be a few posts looking at specific issues (clients willing).

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