Ten teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 14 on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Read MoreWith the exception of MoSHPlay_Marg on head-to-head tipping (the form of tipping where genuine talent is least likely to prevail), the MoS trio continue to rank highly on the Tipster Dashboard.
Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was MoSSBODS_Marg’s eight from nine, which saw it join MoSHBODS_Marg in first place on the Leaderboard with 31 from 45 (69%), two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins. The all-Tipster average was 6.8 from 9, despite the fact that only 6 favourites won.
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Cats by 17 points.
It’s Essendon by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points.
MoSHPlay moves to Saints by 24 points..
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 11 points.
It’s looking like a very restrained MoSHPlay week, with so far only a single most-extreme prediction, and that by just 3 points.
MoSHPlay is very much in keeping with the mainstream crowd in forecasting a Lions win by 28 points
This week the MoS twins are seeing lower totals than are the bookmakers for all but a couple of games, which has left their all-game average about 4 to 5 points under the bookmakers’.
Read MoreThe TAB Bookmaker sees Round 5 as delivering nine games with an average victory margin of almost 17 points per game, his highest pre-round average this season.
Six games, however, are expected to be won by less than 20 points, with the Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne v GWS games those that are driving up the average.
Read MoreThere was a lot more stability on MoSSBODS this week, but still a fair bit of turbulence on MoSHBODS, as the former re-ranked just nine teams and only two by more than a single spot, and the latter re-ranked 14 teams and six by more than a single spot.
Read MoreWinners and margins proved a little harder to forecast this week, but the MoS trio still returned mostly pleasing results relative to the bookmakers.
Read MoreAnd it’s Carlton by 3 points to end the round for MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to Hawks by 1 point..
MoSHPlay is now Essendon by only 9 points.
Just minor tweaks for the two upcoming games, which leaves MoSHPlay at Dogs by 17 and Dockers by 5.
Pies by 27 points. Final answer.
It’s the Swans by 39 points, according to MoSHPlay..
MoSHPlay is now, essentially, calling the Cats v Lions game a draw.
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay in the round’s other games at this point, although it is siding with the majority, and against its siblings, in the Suns v Blues game.
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 18 points.
MoSHPlay’s opening bid on the Thursday game is Melbourne by 21 points.
On average, the MoS twins are seeing lower totals this week than are the bookmakers, but there is quite some variability on a game-to-game basis.
Read MoreThe original blog for Round 4 was accidentally overwritten, so I’ve here reposted the key images.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS re-ranked the vast majority of teams this week, though both left Melbourne in top spot.
The shuffling just below Melbourne resulted in an identical set of teams in positions 2nd through 5th: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
Read MoreFor the first time since I started trying to include player information in my forecasts, it seems this year is the one where it’s proven most useful in predicting margins and results, but not to the extent where it’s rendered useless the wagering abilities of the player-agnostic models.
Read MoreThe long-awaited markets for the West Coast v Fremantle game are now up, which allows us, firstly, to complete the round’s forecasting.
Read MoreEagles by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 38 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
It’s GWS by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay
Port Adelaide by 8 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.
MoSHPlay now at Dees by 26 points.
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay at this point for the remaining games in the round, though it is the most-extreme Predictor in the Giants v Gold Coast, and Saints v Roos games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 3 points.
It’s the Dogs by the tiniest margin, according to MoSHPlay
We’re still waiting for the bookmakers to show their hands in the West Coast v Fremantle game but, in the eight games we know about, MoS and bookmaker opinions are generally quite similar, with the very notable exception of the GWS v Gold Coast game.
Read MoreThe bookmakers are still yet to post markets for the West Coast v Fremantle derby but, since there’s no way of telling how long it will be until they do so, let’s take a look at what we do know about the eight other games.
Read MoreSome more reshuffling this week, for MoSSBODS mostly mid-table, but for MoSHBODS more comprehensively.
Nonetheless, Melbourne retains top spot and Geelong 2nd under both Systems
Read MoreTwo-thirds of the round’s favourites snaffled the four points this week, while only three of the wins were sized six goals or greater.
Read MoreDockers by 1 now, according to MoSHPlay..
MoSHPlay is staying contrarian on the Tigers v Giants game and finishes at Giants by 9 points..
MoSHPlay thinks it’s deciphered the implications of the Eagles’ changes and has finished at North by 16 points, a 9-point shift from MoSHBODS’ team-based assessment.
MoSHPlay has landed on Port by 11 points and Melbourne by 21 points.
MoSHPlay has switched to the Lions and expects them to win by 2 points.
Pies by 17, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay still has the Swans as favourites, but only just.
MoSHPlay, for now, finds itself as the extreme predictor in the Dons v Lions, Roos v Eagles, and Dockers v Saints games.
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points
MoSHPlay’s opening bid (after guessing which of the emergencies will make the final 23) is Dogs by 9 points
The MoS twins, again, are foreshadowing larger totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the bookmakers’ average over two goals under last week’s recorded 176 points per game, and the MoS twins two to five points higher.
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