2022 - Round 1 Results - A Bright Enough Start

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As a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.

At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).

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2022 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay Update

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UPDATE SUNDAY 7PM

Eagles by 4, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SUNDAY 3:30PM

MoSHPlay ends at Adelaide by 15 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM

Hawks by 16, according to MoSHPlay.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4:30PM

With the final team announcements, MoSHPlay has switched to the Giants, but only by 1 point.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1:30PM

The smallest of tweaks to the Cats’ victory margin. MoSHPlay now has it as Cats by 4.

UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM

Nothing particularly outrageous from MoSHPlay in its most recent set of forecasts, which are based on the currently named 22s plus the first of those named on the interchange. At this stage, it is the extreme forecaster only in the Eagles v Suns game where it has the home team winning by just 7 points.

UPDATE THURSDAY 1:30AM

MoSHPlay is broadly in agreement (at this stage) with MoSHBODS about the Blues v Tigers game


UPDATE WEDNESDAY 6:30PM

MoSHPlay, with the announcement of the final teams, has shaved a point off the Dees expected victory margin.

UPDATE TUESDAY 8PM

MoSHPlay (having reconsidered) likes the Dees’ and Dogs’ lineups about equally, and so has the home team winning by about 2 goals.

2022 - Round 1 : We're Still Here - Who Knew?

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Welcome back to all my long-term followers, hello to all my new followers (and arrivederci to those who’ve left, not that they’ll read this, I know).

For all that’s happened globally, locally, and for me, personally, since last we talked, it’s genuinely good to be back.

I realise it’s maybe a tad early to be posting Round 1 wagers and forecasts, but that just reflects the impatience of our time (oh, okay, and maybe my teenager-like impatience to get this thing started, as well)

Here’s what we have …

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2021 - Post Round 27 : Overs/Unders

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The bookmakers were clearly superior to both MoS twins this season in terms of their ability to forecast Game Totals, so much so that it’s fairly unlikely I’ll be bothering to wager in this market next season unless an off-season re-optimisation of the MoS algorithms suggests that a much stronger result is realistic.

In the meantime, let’s wrap up what the final round left us with.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 26

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The Dogs remained in 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, but now trail by only 2.4 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.1 Points on MoSHBODS.

The only teams moving spots were Port Adelaide, who fell three spots to 6th on both Systems, Brisbane Lions, who climbed two spots into 3rd on both Systems despite not playing, and Sydney, who climbed one spot into 5th on both Systems, also without playing.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the top seven and the bottom three teams.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 25

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The Dogs slipped into 2nd place behind the Dees on both Systems this week, and find themselves trailing by 2.7 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and by 7.9 Points on MoSHBODS.

Geelong rose by a single spot on both Systems into 4th, and the Lions fell by two spots on MoSSBODS, and three spots on MoSHBODS. That means both Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams, and that these are the four teams contesting the Preliminary Finals.

In fact, the two Systems now agree about the top 11, and the bottom three teams..

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