2012 Round 8 : Wagers & Tips - It's Raining Buckets

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Last season, whenever the head-to-head markets opened with a slew of Home team favourites, I feared we were in for a weekend of huge risk and minimal reward. This year, to prevent this, I implemented a minimum price constraint on head-to-head wagers, which has served to restrict the Head-to-Head Fund to just two wagers this week, one on the Pies at $1.70 and the other on the Bombers at $1.50.
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2012 Round 7 Interim Results

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There's still a match to be played to complete Round 7 so I'll save the detailed review of the round for tomorrow night.

In the meantime, the headline result for Investors is that they're up by about 1.75c on the round, which leaves Overall Portfolios at around one-tenth of a cent under breakeven for the season. We've the Head-to-Head Fund to thank for the week's profit, its 2 from 2 performance lifting its price by almost 11c for the round and taking it to $1.063.

The Line Fund's 2 and 2 performance knocked 1 cent off its price leaving it at $0.91, while the Margin Fund's 0 and 2 record stripped 5c from its price, taking it to $1.125.

MAFLOnline Has a New Name ...

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... actually, it's a pseudonym (a word that, prior to 25 years exposure to poor spelling on the web, I'd have confidently set down and then moved on without the need, as I have just now, to look it up in an online dictionary - which, now I think about it, I've assumed was correct ...).

I know from the weblogs that few of you come to the MAFL site via the tortuous method of clacking maflonline.squarespace.com into the address bar of your browser. Frankly, I probably wouldn't either were I not using Google Chrome which completes the remaining 25 characters for me as soon as I type the leading 'm'.

From today you need no longer remember that alphabet's worth of URL when you want to visit MAFL or refer a friend, colleague or random passerby to the site. (Look, traffic's traffic, and every writer wants an audience). Thanks to the commercially generous folk over at Squarespace, who are offering all their subscribers a free domain name, you can now reach the MAFL site via www.matterofstats.com.

For those of you who come to MAFL by other methods, including those who click on the links in the automatic e-mails they receive, nothing changes. The matterofstats link is a new and additional door to the site, and none of the old doors have been boarded up.

I like the MatterOfStats name and, in time, almost certainly in the off-season, I'll probably use it in rebranding and rejigging the current site. For at least the next 4 months though you'll see no other changes related to it.

2012 Round 6 : Wagers - Updated

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Investors have secured the last of their wagers for the round, the Blues to beat GWS by 20-29 points, and have been offered $21 in return for their faith in a statistical algorithm prophesying the result of a mismatch, the like of which it never saw during its training.

Here's the full set then of 6 Line bets, 1 Head-to-Head bet, and 5 SuperMargin wagers:

And here's the Ready Reckoner for that boatload of bets: 

 (Note that I've corrected a couple of minor errors from the version that came with the blog post on Thursday [and Saturday ...]). 

2012 Round 5 : Wagers for ANZAC Day

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Just a very quick note to let Investors know that they do have wagers on tomorrow's Collingwood v Essendon game, specifically: 

  • The Line Fund has 5% on the Pies -5.5 at $1.90
  • The Margin Fund has 2.5% on the Pies to win by 10-19 points at $7.50

 Three scenarios are possible:

  • The best of all possible worlds, where the Pies win by 10-19 points. Both wagers are therefore collects, the Line Fund rises by 4.5%, the Margin Fund rises by 16.25%, and Portfolios rise by 5.5%.
  • The world that's not quite as good but that's still better than the other possible world, where the Pies win by 6 points or more, but not by 10-19 points. In that case the Margin Fund falls by 2.5%, the Line Fund rises by 4.5%, and Portfolios rise by 1.8%
  • The most likely but least desirable world, where the Pies win by 5 points or less, draw or lose. Here, both bets are losers, the Margin Fund falls by 2.5%, the Line Fund falls by 5% and Portfolios fall by 3%.