2026 - Round 27 (Finals Week 3) : Semi Interesting
/This week we have just two games, both with home team favourites, one expected to be won by about 10 points, and the other by about 3 goals.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
There are no contrarian tips this week, which means that one of or both Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear are guaranteed to finish at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.
Amongst the Margin Predictors the margin forecast ranges are around 8 points for both games and no predictor is Extreme in more than one game.
Amongst the Probability Predictors the probability forecast ranges are just 4% and 6% with MARS_Prob the Extreme Predictors in two games.
Bookie_LPSO currently leads RSMP_Weighted by 9.5 points at the top of the Leaderboard and the aggregate absolute difference in their forecasts is about 7 points, which means that the gap at the end of the round could be as small as a couple of points.
WAGERS
A single wager this week: a small line bet on Brisbane Lions giving just over 3 goals start.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Roughly speaking, the potential gain will be about 0.6c best case and the losses about 0.7c worst case.
The veto rules had no effect this week (excepting that the estimated edge on a Lions head-to-head bet, though positive, was not deemed large enough to warrant a wager).
To finish, here are MoSHBODS’ and MARS’ opinions about likely team scoring, margins and probabilities.
Commentary about the MoSHBODS’ Totals forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
