2025 - Round 8 : Hard to Pick

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Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by just over three goals, and only the ninth by a more comfortable margin of eight goals.

I will, therefore, by very surprised if MoSHPlay repeats its Round 7 heroics of tipping all nine winners.

Let’s see what the other models make of it all for now.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Despite the number of near coin-toss games there’s virtually no contrarianism this week, with Home Sweet Home’s three game effort matched only by a single game contribution from MoSSBODS_Marg.

That said, amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve still managed double-digit forecast ranges in seven games, most notably 16 points in the Dons v Roos clash, 15 points in the Hawks v Tigers clash, and 14 points in the Lions v Suns, and Swans v Giants matchups.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 15% points in the Lions v Suns, and Dons v Roos games, 14% points in the Swans v Giants game, and 13% points in the Crows v Blues fixture.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund again has five wagers, but this week ranging in size only from 0.1 to 1.1% and totalling just over 3% of the original Fund. Meantime, the Line Fund has opted for just four bets ranging in size from 0.3 to 2.2% and totalling just under 4% of the original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Sydney carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 10 points or more represents 3.4% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric West Coast carry 1.3% risk, Essendon 1.2%, Richmond 1%, and Collingwood 0.4%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 4c, while a worst case set would snip over 3c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.