With the 2019 Preliminary Finals now completed, let’s have another look at how teams from different home-and-away ladder positions have fared in Finals since 2000.
(Note that the images can be clicked on to access larger versions. Also, if you’re interested in the statistics for Qualifying and Elimination Finals, see this earlier post, and if you’re interested in the statistics for Semi-Finals, see this one.)
Collingwood continued the dire record of teams finishing 4th in the home and away season and playing in a Preliminary Final. That record is now 2 and 15, by far the worst of any of the teams with the double chance.
GWS meantime, became the first team from 6th on the ladder to progress to a Grand Final.
In the other game, Richmond defeating Geelong took the record for Minor Premiers to 14 and 6 in Preliminary Finals, and that for teams finishing 3rd to 10 and 6.
The Grand Final sees 3rd take on 6th for the first time during the period that we’re analysing - the first time, in fact, that a team from 6th has faced anyone in a Grand Final.
As noted previously, in general, teams from outside the Top 3 have fared poorly in Grand Finals, with the Western Bulldogs the only team to have won the Flag, and one of now only four teams to have even made the Grand Final from outside the Top 3.
Teams from 3rd are currently 5 and 4 in Grand Finals.
If we combine the records across the four weeks of the Finals we can see that success remains highly correlated with ladder position, although teams from 4th overall fare worse than we might otherwise expect, dragged down in particular by that now 2 and 15 record in Preliminary Finals.
GWS is continuing to bolster the record of teams from 6th, who collectively now have a 49% win rate in Finals.