2019 - Round 26 Results (Week 3 of the Finals) - Just One Left

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged 1 from 2 correct tips this week, with the exception of Consult The Ladder, who bagged neither.

That means ENS_Linear and RSMP_Simple are capable of finishing level with Bookie Knows Best should they successfully tip an upset victory in the Grand Final.

RSMP_Weighted’s lead over RSMP_Simple stands at 5 points going into the final game, which is almost certainly an insurmountable gap, since the average difference in their forecasts for each game this year has been just 0.8 points, and the largest difference just 3 points for the Round 23 Gold Coast v GWS game where the expected margins were in the 40-point range.

The week’s best mean absolute error (MAE) belonged to Bookie_Hcap, and the worst to MoSHPlay_Marg, which saw the former climb into 6th, and the latter fall to 7th. ENS_Linear was the only other Predictor changing rank this week, it rising to 5th.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, MoSSBODS_Prob has effectively locked up 1st place, since the second-placed MoSHBODS_Prob’s probability estimate won’t be different enough to see it claim the lead.

This week saw all of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors record negative log probability scores, best amongst them Bookie_OE, and worst MoSHPlay_Prob.


A loss this week for Investors as Geelong’s 17.5 points start proved to be not quite enough.

The Combined Portfolio is now priced at $1.231, this result coming now from a 12.5% ROT on a 1.84 turn of the Portfolio Funds.