2019 - Team Ratings After Round 8

Collingwood, who still sit atop both MoS Rating Systems, now have a 2 Scoring Shot (or about 7.3 points if we assume a 53% conversion rate) lead over Geelong on MoSSBODS, and a 3.3 points lead over Geelong on MoSHBODS. GWS fill 3rd place under both Systems, fractionally behind Geelong on MoSSBODS, and just over 2 points behind on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS, nine teams stayed in the same place this week and only two moved by more than two places, with the Brisbane Lions slipping 3 spots into 10th, and St Kilda slipping 4 spots into 14th. MoSHBODS kept 11 teams anchored, but lifted Hawthorn up 5 spots into 8th, slipped the Brisbane Lions down 3 spots into 11th, and shoved St Kilda down 5 spots into 15th.

Those moves have left the Systems now differing in their rankings of all but the Dees, Eagles and Dockers by no more than 2 places. The Dees are 11th on MoSSBODS and 14th on MoSHBODS, the Eagles are 12th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS, while the Dockers are still 15th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS.

Eight teams now have a positive Combined Rating on both Systems, while the Dogs have a positive MoSSBODS but a negative MoSHBODS Combined Rating, and the Eagles have a positive MoSHBODS but a negative MoSSBODS Combined Rating. The gap between 1st and 8th on MoSSBODS stands at 5.4 Scoring Shots (or just under 20 points), and between 1st and 8th on MoSHBODS at 19.1 points. In other words, roughly speaking, there’s about a 3-goal difference between the teams the Systems think might be minor premiers and those they think might just sneak into the eight.

On the component ratings, Collingwood has now moved into 1st on offence and on defence on both Systems, while GWS holds 2nd on offence and Geelong 2nd on defence on both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 4 are rated negatively on both (down 2), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). MoSHBODS puts every team in the same quadrant as MoSSBODS except for Melbourne, which MoSSBODS places in the negative-positive offence-defence quadrant, but MoSHBODS places in the negative-negative offence-defence quadrant, and Fremantle, which MoSSBODS places in the negative-negative offence-defence quadrant, but MoSHBODS places in the negative-positive offence-defence quadrant

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, no team is ranked more than 2 spots differently by the two Systems.

  • on defence, only three teams are ranked more than 2 spots differently by the two Systems: Melbourne (6th on MoSSBODS and 13th on MoSHBODS), West Coast (11th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS), and Fremantle (13th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS)

Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after eight rounds of the home-and-away season).

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

Collingwood is now the only teams with a Combined Rating at or above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season, and Geelong, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond, and Essendon (barely) the only other teams with Combined Ratings above the lowest decile for all previous Grand Finalists.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and highlights, in particular, the convergence of Geelong, GWS, Port Adelaide and Richmond in the upper quadrant this week.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 8.gif

ChiPS and MARS, once again, left Geelong and Collingwood in 1st and 2nd spots this week. MARS left GWS in 3rd, but ChiPS relegated GWS into 4th after elevating Richmond.

ChiPS made the only ranking changes exceeding 2 spots, dropping Fremantle 3 places into 15th and lifting the Western Bulldogs by 4 places into 12th.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Melbourne by more than 2 places. ChiPS has them 13th while MARS has them 10th. Both have the same nine teams as better-than-average teams (ie rated over 1,000) and the same nine teams as worse-than-average teams.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Sydney now has the widest range of rankings (10th on ChiPS and 17th on MoSSBODS)

  • West Coast and the Western Bulldogs have the next-widest range. The Eagles are 6th on MARS but 12th on MoSSBODS, and the Dogs are 8th on MoSSBODS and 14th on MARS.

  • Port Adelaide (4th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MARS) has rankings spanning 5 spots

  • No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

  • Gold Coast is the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but eight other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

We now see fairly large positive differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings (ie red dots, where Rating System ranking is much lower than ladder position) for (still!) the Lions, Dockers, and Suns, and large negative differences (ie green dots) for only the Dons.