2019 - Round 8 Results - A Better Round for the Bookmaker

As expected with the higher levels of disagreement this week, there was quite a spread of scores across the Head-to-Head Tipsters, ranging from 3 out of 9s for C_Marg, Home Sweet Home, and Consult the Ladder, to 7 out of 9s for the RSMP twins and Bookie Knows Best.

MoSHPlay_Marg managed only 6 from 9, but that was enough to retain the top spot on the Leaderboard where it now sits with a 45 from 72 (63%) record, one tip clear of RSMP_Simple.

Collectively, the Margin Predictors recorded an average mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.5 points per game, with the best MAE belonging to RSMP_Weighted (15.6) and the worst belonging to MoSHPlay_Marg (21.9), which saw the latter Predictor slip back to 6th place.

Bookie_Hcap was the only other Predictor slipping down the ladder, it moving from 7th to 9th on the back of a 19.6 MAE.

It was a generally good round for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, too, with MoSSBODS_Prob the only Predictor recording a negative log probability score. The best scores for the round belonged to the three Bookie-based Predictors, though MoSHPlay_Prob wasn’t far behind. Its performance was good enough to lift it into 3rd place, behind the MoS twins.


This week was always going to be mostly about how St Kilda went with 18.5 start, and our half-point win was enough to secure another profitable round. Realistically though, we’d have to consider that a fortunate outcome given the amounts by which the Saints trailed at different times in the game.

In total, the Head-to-Head Fund made a loss on just 1 from 5 collects, the Line Fund made a profit on 3 from 4 collects, and the Overs/Unders Fund made a profit on 2 from 3 collects.

Together they made a profit for Round 8 of 3.5c, which took the Combined Portfolio’s price to just over $1.20, this lift coming from a 27.3% ROI on a 0.74 turn.