2019 - Team Ratings After Round 7

Collingwood have opened up small gaps atop both the MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Ratings Systems after comprehensively accounting for Port Adelaide in a 39 point and 14 scoring shot victory.

On MoSSBODS, Collingwood were one of 12 teams, including the Top 6, to finish the weekend with the same ranking as they started. Hawthorn, down 3 spots to 11th, was the only team to move by move than two places.

MoSHBODS retained the rankings of just 7 teams (though also including Collingwood) and re-ranked many of the teams in the top half of the order. Overall, the biggest movers were Hawthorn, down 5 places to 13th, and the Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs, both up 3 places to 8th and 11th respectively.

Those moves have left the Systems now differing in their rankings of all but the Eagles and Dockers by no more than 2 places. The Eagles are 14th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS, while the Dockers are 15th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS.

Seven teams now have a positive Combined Rating on both Systems, and the Lions have a positive MoSSBODS but a negative MoSHBODS Combined Rating.

Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that GWS remains ranked 1st on offence and Collingwood 1st on defence according to both Systems. The Systems also agree that Collingwood is 2nd on offence, and Geelong 2nd on defence.

On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are rated positively on offence and defence, 6 are rated negatively on both, 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence. MoSHBODS puts every team in the same quadrant as MoSSBODS except for Fremantle, which MoSSBODS places in the negative-positive offence-defence quadrant, but MoSHBODS places in the negative-negative offence-defence quadrant.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, no team is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems.

  • on defence, no team is ranked more than 4 spots differently by the two Systems (the big differences being for St Kilda, West Coast, and Fremantle).

We can, once again, place the teams’ current offensive and defensive ratings in an historical context (and see which offence-defence quadrant they’re in) by comparing them with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after seven rounds of the home-and-away season).

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

Only three teams now have a Combined Rating at or above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season - Collingwood, GWS, and Geelong - with Richmond, Port Adelaide and Essendon now the only other teams with Combined Ratings above the lowest decile for all previous Grand Finalists.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows, in particular, the clear gap between the Top 5 teams (or maybe Top 6) and the rest of the competition.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 7.gif

ChiPS and MARS left Geelong and Collingwood in 1st and 2nd this week, and both moved GWS into 3rd. They now agree about the ranking of 8 of the 18 teams.

No team was moved by more then 2 places by either System this week, partly due to the dampened change parameters used by bothof them once Round 6 is complete.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of no team by more than three places (with Essendon, West Coast, and Melbourne the only teams where the difference is even that great).

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • West Coast have the widest range of rankings. They’re 6th on MARS but 14th on MoSSBODS.

  • The Western Bulldogs have the next-widest range of rankings, from 9th on MoSSBODS to 16th on ChiPS.

  • Sydney (11th on ChiPS and 17th on MoSSBODS) and St Kilda (10th on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and 16th on MARS) have rankings spanning 6 spots

  • Hawthorn (8th on ChiPS and 13th on MoSHBODS) has rankings spanning 5 spots

  • No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

  • Gold Coast is the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but six other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

We now see fairly large positive differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings (ie red dots, where Rating System ranking is much lower than ladder position) for the Lions, Dockers, and Suns, and large negative differences (ie green dots) for the Tigers and Dons.