2019 - Team Ratings After Round 5

This week, it’s Collingwood’s turn, again, to fill top spot on the MoS Team Rating Systems, nudging GWS back into 2nd on both. Further down the table, Port Adelaide did enough on MoSSBODS to grab 3rd spot, but not quite enough to take 3rd from Geelong on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS, the other big climbers this week, as well as Port Adelaide, were Adelaide (up 4 spots) and Fremantle (up 3 spots). West Coast (down 6 spots), and Brisbane Lions (down 4 spots) were the teams falling furthest. On MoSHBODS, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Fremantle climbed three spots each, while Melbourne and West Coast fell three.

All the week’s moves have left the Systems now differing in their rankings of all but West Coast by no more than 2 places. The Eagles are 11th on MoSSBODS and 7th on MoSHBODS.

Six teams now have a positive Combined Rating on both Systems, while one (St Kilda) is positive on MoSSBODS but negative on MoSHBODS, and two others (Adelaide and West Coast) are positive on MoSHBODS but negative on MoSSBODS.

Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that GWS remains ranked 1st on offence by both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. On defence, Port Adelaide has rocketed to 1st on MoSSBODS, while Collingwood has assumed that position on MoSHBODS.

The gap between 1st and 8th on offence for MoSSBODS is now 2 scoring shots (down 0.5 scoring shots) and for MoSHBODS is 8.2 points (no change). On defence the gap is 3.2 scoring shots (up by 0.8 scoring shots) for MoSSBODS, and 9.9 points for MoSHBODS (up 0.1 points).

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, West Coast are ranked 15th by MoSSBODS and 11th by MoSHBODS. No other team is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems.

  • on defence, Adelaide are ranked 17th by MoSSBODS and 11th by MoSHBODS, and Carlton are ranked 12th by MoSSBODS and 16th by MoSHBODS. No other team is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems.

We can, as usual, place the teams’ current offensive and defensive ratings in an historical context by comparing them with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after five rounds of the home-and-away season).

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

Port Adelaide, GWS and Collingwood are now the only teams with a Combined Rating at or above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season. Richmond and Geelong still have Combined Ratings just below that median. Essendon is the only other team with a Combined Rating above the lowest decile for all previous Grand FInalists.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 5.gif

The obvious big mover this week is Port Adelaide, who grew both its offensive and defensive ratings.

ChiPS and MARS are in agreement again about the number 1 team, both now putting the Cats in that spot. They also agree that Collingwood and Richmond fill the 2nd and 3rd positions.

ChiPS moved half of the team by 3 spots or more this week, while MARS moved only three teams by that far.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only West Coast by more than 2 places. ChiPS has West Coast in 7th while MARS has them in 4th.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • West Coast and Sydney how have the widest range of rankings. West Coast is 4th on MARS but 11th on MoSSBODS, and Sydney is 10th on ChiPS and 17th on MoSSBODS

  • St Kilda has the next-widest range of rankings, from 7th on MoSSBODS to 13th on MARS

  • No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems. North Melbourne and Gold Coast are now ranked identically by all four Systems, and six other teams’ rankings cover only two values.

We now see fairly large positive differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings (ie Rating System ranking is much lower than ladder position) for the Saints, Dockers, Lions, and Suns, and large negative differences for the Tigers and Dees.