2019 - Round 6 : Don't Be Expecting Nine This Week, Either

This week we’re back to low expected margins, with the nine-game average coming in at 15.4 points per game, which is roughly what we had for Round 3 and Round 4. We arrived at that figure of 15.4 via seven games with expected margins below 3 goals and two with expected margins of around 4 goals.

That’s six successive rounds now with an average below 20 points, the first time this has happened since sometime before 2012.

The average expected margin for the season as a whole now stands at 16.2 points per game, which is almost 5 points per game below last year’s all-season average, albeit that this average was dragged up by the figures from about Round 11 onwards.

To the MoS forecasters.


Low levels of disagreement again this week, with only Home Sweet Home voting underdog in more than a single game. Importantly, C_Marg has gone for the underdog in the Dons v Pies clash, which could see it lose its position of co-leadership atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.

Looking across the games, the only underdogs winning more than a single vote are Essendon, Gold Coast, and Adelaide, who’ve each won two votes.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, C_Marg’s forecast of a 45-point Fremantle win has ensured that the Dockers v Dogs game has the round’s largest range of forecasts spanning just over 5 goals. In other games, the ranges go from a low of 14 points in the St Kilda v Adelaide game, to 24 points in the Geelong v WC game.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 15.9 points per game, which is about half a point per game above the TAB bookmaker’s average.

C_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in six of the games, and RSMP_Simple in three. I can’t recall RSMP_Simple ever before being the extreme predictor is one game in a round, let alone three.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Fremantle v Western Bulldogs game where the forecasts span around 22% points from 66% to 88%. In seven other games the ranges are 15% or higher, leaving the Saints v Crows game to register the narrowest range of just 12% points. C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, Bookie_OE in four (all bearish about the home teams’ chances), and Bookie_RE Bookie_LPSO in three each.


It’s a moderately busy round this week, with four head-to-head and four line bets..

The head-to-head bets range in size from 1.1% on Gold Coast at $2.90, to 6.9% on Port Adelaide at $1.29, with the other bets sized at 1.3% and 4% range, while the line bets range from 0.4% on Carlton +24.5 at $1.87, to 3.1% on GWS -13.5 at $1.91.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Geelong and Port Adelaide this week carries roughly the same risk, with the difference between the worst- and best-possible outcomes spanning about 3.5c. In the other games, the Dons, Suns, Giants and Pies all carry between 0.4 and 3c worth of risk.

In total, just under 7% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across six games, and the maximum upside is just over 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.