2019 - Team Ratings After Round 27
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS penalised GWS heavily on the back of their Grand Final performance, slipping them back to 8th on both Systems.
Richmond, fittingly, finished 1st on both Systems, with a 2.4 Scoring Shot lead over the Lions on MoSSBODS, and an 8.3 point lead over the Cats on MoSHBODS.
The two Systems end the season differing in their rankings of only five teams by more than two spots:
Brisbane Lions: 2nd on MoSSBODS and 7th on MoSHBODS
Port Adelaide: 6th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS
Western Bulldogs: 7th on MoSSBODS and 4th on MoSHBODS
West Coast: 9th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS
Sydney: 14th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 17th end separated by less than 10 Scoring Shots (and 2nd and 7th by only 2 Scoring Shots), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th end separated by less than 10 points.
The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings finish with an extremely high correlation of +0.9755.
On the Component Ratings, we have as our final Top 3s:
Offence
MoSSBODS: Lions, Tigers, Dogs
MoSHBODS: Dogs, Tigers, Lions
Defence
MoSSBODS: Tigers, Pies, Hawks
MoSHBODS: Tigers, Pies, Hawks
The correlation between the underlying offensive ratings of the two Systems is +0.9753, and between the underlying defensive ratings +0.9755.
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams finish rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 8 rated negatively on both (no change), one rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 3 rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
Only two teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:
Western Bulldogs (positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)
Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current and final MoSSBODS rating.
ChiPS dropped GWS two places into 7th this week, promoting Hawthorn into 5th and Brisbane Lions into 6th, while MARS swapped Richmond for Geelong, and Hawthorn for GWS.
That’s left both with a final Top 2 of Richmond and Geelong, and Sydney and Fremantle the only teams whose ranking they disagree about by more than two places.
The correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings finishes the season at +0.9746.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems, and ordering the teams based on their average ranking, we find that:
Richmond, ranked 1st now on all four Systems, has the lowest average ranking.
Four teams have rankings across the four Systems that span six places (West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and St Kilda)
Brisbane Lions and Essendon have rankings across the four Systems that span five places
Port Adelaide has rankings across the four Systems that span four places
No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the four Systems.
Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Richmond finish as the only teams ranked identically by all four Systems, but seven other teams’ rankings span a range of only 1 or 2 places.
