2019 - Team Ratings After Round 24

Both MoS Systems still have Richmond as their number one team after the 1st week of the Finals, but MoSSBODS has left the Brisbane Lions in 2nd, where MoSHBODS has dropped them two places into 8th.

MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is rounded out by Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ has the Cats in 2nd, and Collingwood in 3rd.

In total, eight teams were re-ranked by both Systems this week, but only GWS (up 4 to 5th on MoSSBODS), and Western Bulldogs (down 5 to 8th on MoSSBODS) were moved by more than two places.

The two Systems now differ in their rankings of only four teams by more than two spots:

  • Brisbane Lions: 2nd on MoSSBODS and 8th on MoSHBODS

  • Port Adelaide: 7th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS

  • Western Bulldogs: 8th on MoSSBODS and 4th on MoSHBODS

  • Sydney: 14th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS

On MoSSBODS, 1st and 17th are now separated by only 8.1 Scoring Shots (and 2nd and 7th by only 1.8 Scoring Shots), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by only 9.9 points.

The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain extremely highly correlated.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now rate the same 10 teams as being above-average (those in the upper-right quadrant of the chart above).

On the Component Ratings, on offence we see the Brisbane Lions regaining top spot on MoSSBODS, now ahead of the Western Bulldogs and Richmond. MoSHBODS has Western Bulldogs in 1st, Brisbane Lions in 2nd, and West Coast in 3rd.

On defence, MoSSBODS now has it Richmond, Collingwood and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, Collingwood, and then Hawthorn.

On offence, only Port Adelaide (4th on MoSSBODS, and 8th on MoSHBODS) is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems, but on defence we have Brisbane Lions 7th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS, Western Bulldogs 13th on MoSSBODS and 9th on MoSHBODS, West Coast 9th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and St Kilda 10th on MoSSBODS and 15th on MoSHBODS.

Still, the correlation between the underlying offensive ratings of the two Systems is +0.977, and between the underlying defensive ratings +0.972.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 8 are rated negatively on both (no change), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 1), and 2 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

Only three teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:

  • Collingwood (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

  • Western Bulldogs (positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

  • Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current MoSSBODS rating.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 24.gif

ChiPS left its Top 5 teams unchanged this week (and its Bottom 11), while MARS left Geelong in 1st and Richmond in 2nd, but moved West Coast back ahead of Collingwood and into 3rd.

In fact, ChiPS re-ranked only two teams this week and MARS only seven, with none moving by more than two spots on either System.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing still about the rankings of only Sydney and Fremantle by more than two places.

We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems, and ordering the teams based on their average ranking, we find that:

  • Richmond has the lowest average ranking. It’s 1st on MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS, and ChiPS, and 2nd on MARS

  • Five teams have rankings across the four Systems that span six places (West Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, and St Kilda)

  • Essendon has rankings across the four Systems that span five places

No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

Gold Coast remains the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but nine other teams’ rankings span a range of only 1 or 2 places.