2019 - Team Ratings After Round 17

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both elevated Brisbane Lions this week, MoSSBODS by one spot into 1st, and MoSHBODS by four spots into 4th.

MoSSBODS, in fact, shuffled a large number of teams in its top half, which left GWS in 2nd, behind the Lions, Richmond in 3rd, and Geelong in 4th. MoSHBODS, in contrast, left its Top 3 unchanged as GWS, Geelong and then Richmond.

In total, MoSSBODS changed the ranking of 14 teams this week - all but its Bottom 4, in fact - most notably Adelaide (up 3 spots into 9th), Port Adelaide (down 3 spots into 8th), and West Coast (down 3 spots into 11th). No other teams moved by more than 2 spots.

MoSHBODS only re-ranked 7 teams, and only Brisbane Lions (up 4 spots into 4th, as mentioned), Port Adelaide (down 4 spots into 11th), and Adelaide (up 3 spots into 8th) by more than 2 spots.

Those moves left the Systems now differing in their rankings of only three teams by more than three spots:

  • Western Bulldogs, ranked 6th by MoSSBODS, and 10th by MoSHBODS

  • West Coast, ranked 11th and 6th

  • Essendon, ranked 13th and 9th

Ratings remain compressed on both Systems. On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 13th are now separated by only 3.9 Scoring Shots, and on MoSHBODS, 2nd and 13th are separated by only 14.4 points.

The underlying MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain highly correlated.

Most teams lie on or along a straight line, with the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne all relatively more favoured by MoSSBODS than MoSHBODS, and GWS, Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong, and Essendon being more favoured by MoSHBODS than MoSSBODS.

MoSSBODS now rates 11 teams as above-average while MoSHBODS rates 12 teams this way, the difference being Essendon, which MoSHBODS has with a +3.6 points Combined Rating and MoSSBODS a -0.4 Scoring Shot Combined Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we see Brisbane Lions still in top spot on both Systems, and now ahead of Richmond and Adelaide on MoSSBODS, and GWS and Richmond on MoSHBODS.

On defence, GWS remains 1st on both Systems, while both Systems re-ranked Geelong and Collingwood to move them into 2nd and 3rd, respectively, under both Systems.

On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 2), 4 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 2), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).

Five teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:

  • Collingwood (positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS)

  • Adelaide and West Coast (positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS, positive offence and negative defence on MoSSBODS)

  • Melbourne (negative offence and defence on MoSHBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS)

  • Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, no team is ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems

  • on defence, only Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Melbourne, and Essendon are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems

Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 17 rounds of the home-and-away season).

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

It remains the case that no team has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season. In short, there really are no standout teams in historical terms at the moment.

In fact, the only teams now with a Combined Rating above the lowest decile for all previous Grand Finalists are GWS, Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and Geelong. At the other end, Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, St Kilda, and Gold Coast all have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.

If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we obtain, as we did last week, a similar picture for the teams above the median (ie none of them), but a lot more teams with Combined Ratings below the lowest level for any previous Grand Finalist during that period.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows Brisbane Lions nudging ahead of GWS with a much higher offensive and much lower defensive Rating.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 17.gif

ChiPS elevated Richmond into 1st, dropped Geelong into 2nd, and lifted Collingwood into 3rd this week, whilst MARS kept a first two of Geelong and West Coast, and elevated Collingwood into 3rd.

Richmond’s rating lead over Geelong on ChiPS is small (1.8 Rating Points), but Geelong’s lead over West Coast on MARS is quite large (14.5 Rating Points). It’s very conceivable, then, that Geelong could be top on both Systems at the end of Round 18.

ChiPS re-ranked eight teams, and MARS nine teams this week. The big movers on ChiPS were Adelaide (up 4 spots into 7th), and Port Adelaide (down 4 spots into 11th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on ChiPS. On MARS, only Port Adelaide (down 3 spots into 9th) moved by more than 2 spots.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Richmond and Sydney by more than two places.

We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • West Coast now has the widest range of rankings (from 2nd on MARS to 11th on MoSSBODS)

  • Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, and Sydney are next (the Dogs from 6th on MoSSBODS to 13th on ChiPS and MARS; the Roos from 5th on MoSSBODS to 12th on ChiPS; and the Swans from 8th ChiPS to 15th on MoSSBODS)

  • Brisbane Lions is next (from 1st on MoSSBODS to 7th on MARS)

  • Then come Essendon (from 8th on MARS to 13th on MoSSBODS)

No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

Gold Coast and St Kilda are the only teams ranked identically by all four Systems, but four other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

No team now has large positive or negative differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings across all four Systems. Also, despite the wide range of rankings across the four Systems that a number of teams have, none is ranked both well-above and well-below its competition ladder position.