2019 - Team Ratings After Round 16

GWS, despite losing to Brisbane Lions, held onto 1st place on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, though it now has only a 1.1 Scoring Shot lead over the Lions on MoSSBODS, and a 4.6 points lead over the Cats on MoSHBODS.

MoSSBODS still has North Melbourne in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has this week rocketed Richmond into that position.

In total, MoSSBODS changed the ranking of 13 teams this week, most notably Richmond (up 4 spots into 4th), Brisbane Lions (up 3 spots into 2nd), and Geelong (down 4 spots into 6th). No other teams moved by more than 2 spots.

MoSHBODS also re-ranked 13 teams, though only Richmond (up 4 spots into 3rd), Adelaide (down 5 spots into 11th), and Fremantle (down 3 spots into 15th) by more than 2 spots.

Those moves left the Systems now differing in their rankings of five teams by more than three spots:

  • Brisbane Lions, ranked 2nd by MoSSBODS, and 8th by MoSHBODS

  • Geelong, ranked 6th and 2nd

  • West Coast, ranked 8th and 4th

  • Collingwood, ranked 9th and 5th

  • Essendon, ranked 14th and 9th

As we’ve noted previously, the level of ranking disparity can often be a poor indicator of the overall level of disagreement at the Rating level, partly because of the high levels of compression in Combined Ratings. Currently, on MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots, and on MoSHBODS, 3rd and 14th are separated by only 12.2 points.

We can see the still overall quite high levels of correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings if we chart them.

Most teams lie on or along a straight line, with the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, and North Melbourne all still relatively more favoured by MoSSBODS than MoSHBODS, and Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong, and Essendon being more favoured by MoSHBODS than MoSSBODS. Note that five of the teams just listed are the same teams we noted as having the most different rankings under the two Systems, and the three others (Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and North Melbourne) have rankings that differ by two or three spots across the two Systems.

Only two teams are rated above-average by one of the Systems and below-average by the other: Adelaide and Essendon.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we see the Brisbane Lions taking top spot on both Systems now, ahead of North Melbourne and West Coast on MoSSBODS, and GWS and West Coast on MoSHBODS.

On defence, GWS remains 1st on both Systems, but MoSSBODS has Port Adelaide in 2nd and Geelong in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has Geelong in 2nd and Port Adelaide in 3rd.

On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 2), 5 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none is is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 2).

Five teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:

  • Brisbane Lions (positive offence and defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and negative defence on MoSHBODS)

  • Port Adelaide (positive offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)

  • Melbourne (negative offence and defence on MoSHBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS)

  • Adelaide and Essendon (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, no team is ranked more than 2 spots differently by the two Systems

  • on defence, only North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Melbourne, and Essendon are ranked more than 3 spots differently by the two Systems

Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 16 rounds of the home-and-away season).

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

No team now has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season. In other words, whichever teams make the Grand Final from here, they will have come from the weaker half of teams (rated after Round 16) who’ve ever made a Grand Final.

Further, GWS, Brisbane Lions North Melbourne, Richmond, Port Adelaide, and Geelong are the only teams with a Combined Ratings above the lowest decile for all previous Grand Finalists. And, lastly, Carlton, St Kilda, and Gold Coast have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.

If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we obtain a similar picture for the teams above the median (ie none of them), but a lot more teams with Combined Ratings below the lowest level for any previous Grand Finalist during that period.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and highlights the closing up in the north-eastern quadrant this week..

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 16.gif

ChiPS and MARS, much like the MoS Systems, re-ranked large numbers of teams this week - 12 for ChiPS and 11 for MARS.

Both still, however, have Geelong in 1st, though ChiPS now has Richmond and GWS in 2nd and 3rd, while MARS has West Coast and GWS.

The big movers on ChiPS were Port Adelaide (up 5 spots into 7th), and Adelaide (down 4 spots into 11th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on ChiPS, and none at all moved by this much on MARS.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Richmond, Sydney, and Adelaide by more than two places.

We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Sydney still has the widest range of rankings (from 6th on ChiPS to 15th on MoSSBODS)

  • North Melbourne has joined them (from 3rd on MoSSBODS to 12th on ChiPS)

  • Brisbane Lions is next (from 2nd on MoSSBODS to 9th on MARS)

  • West Coast, Essendon and Western Bulldogs have the next-widest range of rankings (for West Coast, from 2nd on MARS to 8th on MoSSBODS; for Essendon, from 8th on MARS to 14th on MoSSBODS; and for Western Bulldogs, from 7th on MoSSBODS to 13th on ChiPS and MARS)

  • Then come Geelong, Collingwood, and Adelaide (for Geelong, from 1st on ChiPS and MARS to 6th on MoSSBODS; for Collingwood, from 4th on MARS to 9th on MoSSBODS; and for Adelaide, from 7th on MARS to 12th on MoSSBODS)

  • No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

  • Gold Coast is now the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but five other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

We now see fairly large positive differences between ladder position and Rating System rankings (ie three or four red dots, where Rating System ranking is much lower than ladder position) for only the Lions and Dockers, and large negative differences (ie three or four green dots) for no team at all.