2019 - Round 17 : The Final Third

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For the third week in a row the average bookmaker handicap for the round is above the season average, but it is, at least, under 20 points per game for the first time since Round 14, and for the first nine-game round since Round 10.

Better still, six of the nine games have an expected margin below 3 goals, and one more an expected margin below 4 goals. What’s blown out the overall average are expected margins of about 5-and-a-half goals in the Suns v Crows game, and about 7-and-a-half goals in the Cats v Saints game.

That overall average is 18.8 points per game, which is not only a little high in the context of season 2019, but also in the context of recent Round 17s where it’s the highest since 2016.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 17.1 points per game, which remains almost 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

To the MoS models then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s a smattering of underdog support this week, with almost half of it coming from an unexpected source in Consult The Ladder who’s opted for three non-favourites. C_Marg has gone with two contrarian tips, and Home Sweet Home and the MoS twins with one each (and with their sibling still to speak).

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Dons v Roos and the Tigers v Giants games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, thanks entirely to the MoS twins and C_Marg.

The mean expected margin is 17.2 points per game, which is 1.6 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Cats v Saints game, where it’s 25 points, and for the Dons v Roos game where it’s 24 points, both ranges extended considerably by MoSSBODS_Marg’s forecasts. The remaining games have ranges between 7 and 19 points.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in five games this week, RSMP_Weighted, ENS_Linear, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.

Interestingly, MoSSBODS_Marg is one of the few Margin Predictors who has a better mean absolute error (MAE) when an extreme forecaster than when not, as you can see from the table at right.

On average, in the 42 games where its forecast has been at one of the two extremes, its MAE has been 22.7 points per game compared to 25.9 points per game where its forecast has fallen within the bounds of all the other Margin Predictors.

Bookie_9 has the best record when it’s an extreme forecaster, though it has been this in only 25 games this season. In those games its MAE is just 15.6 points per game, which is almost 11 points lower than its average in games where it is not one of the two most extreme forecasters.

Conversely, MoSHPlay_Marg is the forecaster with the best MAE when it is not one of the two most extreme forecasters. In those games its MAE is just 21.5 points per game, which is almost 9 points lower than its average in games where it is one of the two most extreme forecasters.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest ranges in percentage point terms in the Dons v Roos game where the forecasts span 25% points. Next-largest is the 18% point range for the Tigers v Giants game, followed by the Power v Lions game with 15% points. The remaining games are all in the 6% to 13% point ranges.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, MoSHBODS_Prob in five, and C_Prob and Bookie_LPSO in three each.

WAGERS

A much quieter week for Investors this week, with only five wagers across five of the nine games putting about 6% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are two head-to-head wagers, one of about 3% and the other a little over 4%, and three line wagers ranging in size from 0.8% to 4.7%.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

This week, it’s North Melbourne’s turn to carry the greatest risk of any team (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes). The difference between a successful and unsuccessful line wager on them represents 4.5% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Geelong carrying 2.7% risk, Hawthorn carrying 1.6% risk, Port Adelaide carrying 1.2% risk, and Gold Coast carrying 0.8% risk.

In total, 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just under 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.