2019 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders Update
/It’s Wednesday, and all of the Totals markets are up at the TAB. Even after a decade at this caper, I feel certain I will never truly understand it.
Anyway, the totals on offer are, for the most part, pretty much in line with the MoS twins’ opinions, except in a couple of cases, and we even have a few games where the bookmakers are forecasting higher totals than one or other of the twins. Extraordinary times (or, more accurately, what we often saw in 2018 and earlier seasons).
On average, the twins are still projecting slightly lower totals, but only by 3 or 4 points per game.
MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers all have the Dons v Pies game as the likely high-scoring game of the round, while MoSHBODS gives it to the Tigers v Dees game. All four forecasters have the Cats v Eagles game on their list of most-likely low-scoring games, though MoSSBODS adds the Power v Roos, and the Hawks v Blues games to its list.
The MoS twins have North Melbourne as the round’s most-likely low-scoring team, while the bookmakers have West Coast in that role. MoSSBODS has GWS as the most-likely high-scoring team of the round, while MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers have Port Adelaide as that team.
Again this week we have just one forecaster tipping one team to register three figures (MoSHBODS, Port Adelaide, expected score 102).
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
After another impressive round, MoSSBODS continues to lead all-comers on game margin mean absolute error (MAE), but also now leads on Away Team Score MAE. MoSHBODS continues to lead on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE. Surely it can’t be long before they’re overhauled by the bookmakers.
The MoS twins’ lead over the bookmakers on Total Score MAE now stands at about 3 points.
WAGERS
Just three unders wagers again this week, all of them in the first half of the round (if a 9-game fixture can be said to have a half-way point).
The overlays in those three games range from about 6 to 13 points, which is a similar range to than we enjoyed last weekend when we went 2 and 1.
After last week, MoSSBODS has a 7 and 3 record against the TAB, and a 12 and 8 record against Easybet in the games on which it has wagered.
Across all games, MoSSBODS is at 67% against both the TAB and Easybet, while MoSHBODS is at 64% against both bookmakers.
