2019 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders

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In aggregate, there’s close to accord between the MoS twins and the bookmakers this week, though again some differences that exceed 6 points in size.

Overall, all four forecasters are predicting roughly 80 points per team, with Essendon the only one likely to register three figures, and that according only to the bookmakers. The MoS twins have the Dons scoring only 92 points.

For most-likely low-scoring game we have the Swans v Cats a unanimous choice, and for most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins favouring the Blues v Crows, and the bookmakers selecting the Saints v Dees.

As low-scoring team we have unanimity once again for the Suns as that team, and for high-scoring team we have unanimity about the Dons.

(By the way, that $1.96/$1.85 set of prices from the TAB in the line market for the Hawks v Lions game is not a typo. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a market priced that way by the TAB ever before.)

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week very much belonged to the TAB. It recorded the lowest MAE in all four categories and was equalled by Easybet only on Game Margin and Away Team scores.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Total Score MAE, the TAB still 1st on Home Team Score and Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still first on Away Team Score.

WAGERS

This week, unperturbed by recent results and for the third time in a row, MoSSBODS has identified four wagers. It’s two unders and two overs bets again, as it was last week, with the relevant weather forecasts sufficiently rain-free to allow for overs betting.

The overlays in the games on which we’ve wagers range from about 7.5 to 10 points, which is pretty standard for us in recent times.

Last week, there was one successful wager from two overs bets with the TAB, and no successful wagers from two unders bets with Easybet, which altered MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 13 and 9, and that against Easybet to 21 and 16, droppng the overall win rate to 58% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round the results were uninspiring, with MoSSBODS landing on the right side of the TAB and Easybet in only 3 of the 9 games, and MoSHBODS doing likewise in just 2 of the 9 games. That took MoSSBODS to a 56% record for the season against the TAB, and a 57% record against Easybet, and took MoSHBODS to a 55% record for the season against the TAB, and a 56% record against Easybet.

They’re better than chance performances, but not by much.