2019 - Round 19 : Not Done Yet

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The average expected margin for Round 19, according to the bookmakers early in the week, is just 14.1 points per game, eclipsing Round 18, and recording the new lowest average for any round since Round 14, and the lowest for any nine-game round since Round 10. It’s also the lowest average for a Round 19 across the period we’re analysing, and almost seven points below the all-season average for Round 19s across that same period.

That low average has come about because seven of the nine games have an expected margin of less than 15 points, and an eighth has an expected margin of just over 4 goals. But for the 39.5 point margin in the Suns v Dons game, we might well have had a record low for the season.

The 2019 all-season average now stands at 16.9 points per game, which is 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

Again, we’re left to wonder (briefly), how the MoS models have dealt with this uncertainty.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Again this week we find scant support, Home Sweet Home aside, for underdogs, with just three underdog tips from Consult The Ladder, and one each from ENS_Linear and the MoS twins.

Since ENS_Linear is one of the co-leaders on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, depending on what MoSHPlay_Marg does, top spot might well be at stake.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, only the Hawks v Lions, Saints v Dees, and Power v Giants games have produced forecasts on either side of zero, and two of those games have only done so because of a lone forecaster.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors is a tiny 12.0 points per game, which is just over 2 points per game lower than the bookmaker’s average.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Dogs v Dockers game, where they span a 25 point range thanks, entirely to C_Marg, who’s responsible for 16 of those 25 points. There’s also a 22 point range in the Suns v Dons game, thanks mostly to Bookie_3, and another 22 point range in the Eagles v Roos game, thanks mostly to MoSSBODS_Marg.

Bookie_3 is the most extreme forecaster in six games this week, C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg in three each, and RSMP_Weighted and MoSHBODS_Marg in two each.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Dogs v Dockers game where the forecasts span 21% points. Next-largest is the 20% point range for the Eagles v Roos game, followed by the Hawks v Lions game with 17% points. The remaining games are all in the 7% to 12% point range.

Bookie_RE has the round's most extreme estimates in six contests, C_Prob and the MoS twins in three each, and Bookie_LPSO in two.

WAGERS

Investors face a moderately busy week this week, with nine wagers across seven of the nine games putting almost 5% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are five head-to-head wagers, ranging in size from 0.3% to 1.6% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and four line wagers, all of them on underdogs and ranging in size from 0.5% to 3.4% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by North Melbourne. The difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them represents 3.2% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Gold Coast carrying 2.3% risk, Port Adelaide carrying 1.5% risk, and Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Sydney, all carrying between 0.5% and 0.9% risk..

In total, just under 5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just over 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.